Much has been written about the feasibility of Hydrogen being burned in ICEs in the future. I keep hearing how hydrogen will be the saviour of internal combustion engines. Based on what’s happening in the industry and within the research establishment, it would seem this is a fallacy. Due to Hydrogen’s unique physical properties, that isn’t as easy, or cheap, as suggested. According to stillwaterassociates. com,
https://stillwaterassociates.com/how-does-the-cost-of-hydrogen-stack-up-against-gasoline/
As of last week, Hydrogen prices increased by over 20% as Shell has decided to not pursue any further development of hydrogen fuels for light vehicles, and closed its hydrogen stations.
The following chart illustrates gasoline vs hydrogen vs hybrid vehicles when the cost of hydrogen was ($14.00 per kilogram). Remember that as of this week, hydrogen sells for ($36.00 per kilogram). According to the EPA’s 2022 Fuel Economy Guide, on average gasoline cars get 30 mpg and midsize hybrids 42 mpg. As can be seen in the figure, FCV or Fuel Cell Vehicles is three times higher than that of a conventional gasoline vehicle. To be competitive with hybrid gasoline vehicles on a per-mile basis in 2021 (when hydrogen was $14.00 a kg), hydrogen needed to have been priced at $5.88 per kg.
Right now, hydrogen prices (to be comparable with gas) have risen by 512%!
It is important to understand that the production cost of hydrogen is not the retail cost, and makes up less than 20% of hydrogen’s retail cost. Compression and delivery make up the bulk of the retail cost.
Even with a production economy of scale imposed, the costs will be multiples of gas prices for hydrogen to fuel an FCV in the future. On top of that, hydrogen ICE motorcycles (or cars) will be substantively more expensive than hybrid or electric motorcycles.
Importantly, Stillwater Associates knows of no research or pending breakthroughs sufficient to bridge hydrogen’s five times higher fuel cost compared to gasoline vehicles (based on the current price of $36.00 per kg).
It truly doesn’t sound like hydrogen is a practical option. Feasible, yes. Practical, no.
The article link below from hydrogen insight outlines the current situation, which essentially seems to have put a nail in the coffin of hydrogen practicality.
Ciao…
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