The Politics of Failure

The Vote Versus Action

As a one-time student of politics, particularly of identity politics and strategy, it strikes me that Ian Bremmer’s comments of Jan. 2024 in Eurasiagroup ring true. He states,

“Public trust in core institutions—such as Congress, the judiciary, and the media—is at historic lows; polarization and partisanship are at historic highs. Add algorithmically amplified disinformation to the mix, and Americans no longer believe in a common set of settled facts about the nation and the world.”

The political divisions within the U.S. are possibly already irreconcilable. Worse, the political candidates are uniquely unfit for office. Former President Donald Trump still faces dozens of felony criminal charges. Now that the Supreme Court has been stacked and co-opted by Trump, the institution designed to hold power accountable, no longer exists.

His attempt to overturn a free and fair election clearly illustrate what is to come if he fails to win the vote for re-election. We live in a surreal world where truth is only a concept, where laws are meant to be ‘interpreted’ or ignored.

On the other side, a man who would be 86 years old at the end of his term, is constantly questioned as to his mental faculties. Oddly enough the same question is not being applied to a man who he opposes, only four years younger, even though his behaviour begs for medical analysis.

American governance institutions only work in a functional democracy, not where policy extremism, division and gridlock exist. If Trump is elected there will be a full-court press on, designed to delegitimize the system that is prosecuting him. Trump’s ability to manipulate the media and continually flog the victim narrative continually reinforces his preemptive claims of fraud, should he again lose. Chaos, lies and disruption sow doubt in the institutions of governance and reinforce again the polarization that already exists.

Trump’s agenda is clear and the ramifications of that reality extend far beyond the United States. America will, in the eyes of its allies, become untrustworthy. Trump’s lack of support for NATO will strain the transatlantic alliance, sending a message to Moscow that America will not get in the way of further transgressions into Ukraine or other non-NATO states. Escalation will be the result. Trump’s support for Israel will embolden Israel, leading to a probable war with Iran. Trump’s foreign policies of isolationism will see China emboldened, with the fate of Taiwan hanging in the balance. Xi may pull the trigger on Taiwan immediately if Trump is elected, leading to disastrous import tariffs and the potential for war, in all its dimensions with China. Trade protectionism would not end with China. Canada, Mexico and NAFTA will all be imperilled.

Domestically, Trump will simply break the rule of law. He has made it clear that he will weaponize the organs of power. The FBI, the Justice Department, and the IRS will all act to persecute his political enemies and work to block any legal proceedings against himself. A new era of McCarthyism would return, quelling dissent and targeting the voices of reason.

The U.S. system will see further devolvement over time as democratic states would fight to retain political and economic control against Federal powers. Business and investment would move to align with their political interests further fracturing the existing economic environment. The regulatory environment will become a nightmare.

Ultimately, investment would flee offshore as foundational questions about America’s long-term stability and actual viability comes into question. Without credibility or trustworthiness foreign partners will seek refuge elsewhere. Trump’s populism, authoritarianism, and mercurial personality will lead to significant damage in America.

Democracy itself may hang in the balance, and naive wishful-thinking will not overcome the creation of a kleptocratic state.

America is now approaching a fork in the road. One that will not lead to the same destination, but to a road more travelled by autocrats and dictators than politicians and democracies.