In Europe and North America There Is No Incentive to Going Electric.
The response to electric motorcycles is very different, depending on where you live. In North America, electric motorcycles aren’t popular, at least as of yet, due to their lack of range, and a belief by prospective buyers of a motorcycle that the infrastructure isn’t there yet to support riding an electric.
While that is changing, and new battery technologies mean that in the near future, electric motorcycles will be able to compete with internal combustion engined motorcycles, at the moment, the price for the ones that can is expensive. Like electronic cars, (which are making inroads into the marketplace due to both government incentives and the cost of fossil fuels), electric motorcycles face challenges.
Recently CAKE motorcycles, the Swedish manufacturer of electric motorcycles filed for bankruptcy. In the UK, according to Phil West of VisorDown.com’s article of February 18, 2024, “according to the latest data, electric motorcycles—and particularly bigger ones, larger than 125cc equivalent—aren’t growing at all. In fact, they’re down by almost 50%, and that’s from what was a pretty meagre sales base in the first place.”
According to the Motorcycle Industry Association (MCIA), “total sales were actually down by 37.8 percent…91% of all electric bike sales were of 125cc equivalents or less. As the author of VisorDown’s article suggests, “no one NEEDS a motorcycle—we buy them because we want them. Only small commuters are bought for dispassionate, practical reasons.”
However, when we look at the Asian market, sales are booming. In India, in 2023 electric motorcycle sales increased 35.7% in one year. Indian subsidies led to massive sales increases. In 2023, 866,853 electric motorcycles were sold in India. Not surprisingly, all of the companies posting massive sales increases in India, were Indian. (Ola, TVS, Ather, Bajaj, Hero, Ampere and Okinowa).
Sales of motorcycles (both ICE and electric) in the ASEAN nations in 2023 increased by 3.6% to 14.7 million motorcycles.
Motorcyclesdata.com states that though the two-wheeler market in the United States is stable. For most Americans, “a motorcycle is a typical vehicle to ride free outside congested metropolitan towns that they purchase just for leisure, and life style, more than for usage. This is due to the fact that the electric 2-wheeler market is still marginal and not growing, also due to traditional consumers low interest in the scooter market and inadequate offers in the motorcycle segment.”
As for the North American market, on February 24, 2024, advrider.com wrote an article entitled, “Is Harley’s Livewire Brand Dead?” Harley projected sales of 15,700 Livewire products in 2024. The reality is that it is likely to sell less than 1,000 Livewire products, including the new S2 Del Mar in 2024. According to Adventure Rider, the question is, “How long will Harley-Davidson back a company that continues to incur high costs and return little? Is LiveWire a dead man walking or perhaps a zombie looking for more cash to eat?”
Whereas companies from China and the ASEAN nations are seeing massive sales in the far east, American manufacturers are struggling to compete. Labour costs in the United States are about five times greater than in India and China, and the market growth in Asia has been so substantive that Chinese and Indian motorcycle manufacturers are coming to North America in 2024 and 2025 with complete lines of electric motorcycles, new battery technologies, longer ranges and cheaper prices. These companies are cash infused and see opportunities that don’t exist for North American manufacturers who have to either build in Asia or compete through joint ventures.
A great deal of attention is being paid to the fortunes of LiveWire and its upcoming first quarter results, which will be released in about three weeks. Until a mandate looms (2035) for the purchase of electric motorcycles in North America, and electronic motorcycles overcome some of the challenges posed by long distances, and battery charging times, it’s doubtful that electronic bikes will make huge inroads here.
But What About The Future and Asia?
It would seem that the Asian market will have a profound effect on the sales of electric motorcycles worldwide. While North American manufacturers are rapidly developing new battery technologies that dramatically improve energy density, range and recharging time for electric motorcycles, their manufacturing numbers are low and the American market quite weak.
However in Asia, urban density, government subsidies, air pollution and global warming are factors that are creating increased demands for cheaper, cost-effecive, low or zero-emission vehicles. Many Asian manufacturers will have motorcycles available on the North American market by 2026 that will offer range equal to ICE engines and recharging times to 80% of a full charge in less than 20 minutes. One example is Evoke, which will have a touring motorcycle with a range of 440 highway miles, another is Brisk EV with motorcycles with a range of 333 km on a single charge. This is just the tip of the iceberg as a dozen other electric motorcycle manufacturers from Italy, China, Japan, India and the United States (Lightning) will be producing motorcycles in 2024 capable of long range and short charging times.
However, all is not perfect, even in Asia as the sale of electric motorcycles in Asia declined for the first time since electronic motorcycles were introduced. The Chinese market fell to 9.6 million electronic motorcycles, down -12%. However, the long-range outlook for the Chinese market is amazing (see chart) with projected sales of 60.6 billion U.S. by 2032.
The following chart, from Global Market Insights, Feb., 2024 illustrates the projected growth of the electric motorcycle market. The entire report is too extensive to include, however, based on global targets to lower emissions and fight climate change, it is inevitable that both electric and other fuels will replace existing ICE motorcycles in about ten years.
China is still by far the largest market, still having sold 9.6 million electric motorcycles in 2022. However, India saw a massive increase in production with the market up 354% to over 500,000 electronic bikes. A number poised to continue its growth in 2024.
A Final Word
Whether we want electric motorcycles, it seems that that their replacement of ICE is inevitable in the future. While I, like many of you, will be riding my ICE motorcycle for the next ten years, by 2035, nations that now produce ICE equipped vehicles will find their potential market shrink and become less than viable.
All of Europe, the Far East, and North America are implementing mandates that will restrict, or eliminate the sale of ICE engines as we know them. Whether electric, hybrid or an alternative zero-emission fuel, motorcycles will sound, charge and fuel differntly that today’s mtorcycles.
It is also evident that in North America, young riders are not willing to buy large, expensive, heavy or slow motorcyles, with both a shift in the demographic and the purchasing patterns of the young. Loyalty to a brand is unimportant in their eyes. Affordability is the key factor, and the motorcycles being produced in overseas markets that are all coming to North America wil have a profound impact on sales.
I, for one, will miss them, shoud I be lucky enough to live that long. There is something to be said for the feel, vibration, sound and aesthetics of riding an ICE motorcycle.
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