How History Repeats Itself
Fifty-six years ago, I was a fifteen-year-old Grade X high-school student who wanted freedom and cool transportation that was reliable, at a price I could afford. For me, that boiled down to only one of two possibilities. Either buy an old car and spend all my spare time and money on it, as well as under it or buy a small, cheap motorcycle.
Because my dad was a mechanic, and because my father’s family had raced motorcycles in England, my options were limited to cars, as my father banned me from owning a motorcycle while living under the family’s roof. That fact, and that my family members from across the pond had expired whilst riding two wheels, a motor, and a gas tank, sealed the deal.
Right on queue, a Japanese motorcycle company came on the scene and made a reliable, fun, cheap motorcycle that inundated the school parking lot with new motorcycles within a matter of three years. That company was Honda. Only twenty-three years after their country was destroyed by war, this unknown company and its founder Soichiro Honda, “restlessly experimented with new technologies and products, willing to take risks to grow his fledgling company. Lack of resources often forces you to be creative and flexible instead of relying on brute-force analysis and planning.” Harvard Business Review
https://hbr.org/2011/02/lessons-from-hondas-early-adap
By 1973 in the United States, Honda went from “no presence at all in the U.S. market in 1959 to 63% of the market, dropping the share of British bikes from 49% in 1959 to 9% by 1973. By 1980, British bike sales were less than 2.5 million, down from a high of over 35 million motorcycles less than 10 years earlier.”
https://hbr.org/2011/02/lessons-from-hondas-early-adap
What does this tell us about what is happening today, where Chinese motorcycles are taking over the Asian and Indochinese markets? Not only it can be done, but what the Japanese call “strategic accommodation” or “adaptive persistence” evolves from an incremental adjustment to unfolding events. In short, the Chinese have learned and adapted from Japan’s success. They have begun to out-Japanese the Japanese.
As we look at the North American market, stagnant and entrenched, and the subsequent consistent demise of Harley-Davidson, what does the Chinese market tell us about the future? First, success doesn’t come from repeating what you know, but by invention, creativity, dynamism, and striking when there is a clear inflection point.
American GenXers and NextGens don’t want their father’s motorcycles. Why is that? I was recently at a motorcycle event where a large number of younger would-be motorcyclists attended, with their fathers. So I asked them directly.
“What is it that you want in a motorcycle?” Interestingly, and without any equivocation on their part, the answer came, “Not that”, as they pointed to HD’s latest offering on the floor of the show.
“Why?” I asked. The answer was also clear to them, and these were the majority of the answers provided.
- Too expensive
- Too heavy
- Too slow
- Too unresponsive
I brought with me two photographs of motorcycles and asked them their opinions. Their responses were eye-opening and indicated where they saw their future purchases being made. Almost all of those who saw these two particular machines stated that price would be their first consideration. The second was style or sportiness depending on the individual, and the third biggest consideration was reliability.
The two bikes I chose were a Japanese new entry into the market for 2024, and a Chinese motorcycle that hasn’t as yet arrived on American shores. Both bikes received glowing opinions from future motorcyclists, much to the chagrin of their fathers, who were present. (I’ll come to the bikes in a moment.)
So I asked the fathers of these future would-be motorcyclists what they had ridden in their youth. Most of the men I questioned were middle-aged, from around 45 to 55 years of age. The answers were exactly what the market illustrated over the last twenty years in that Japanese and European motorcycles were what they had chosen. The “why” was also obvious in that North American manufacturers’ offerings were everything their children had specifically stated they did not want.
Currently, the motorcycle industry is undergoing an unprecedented level of change, even when compared to the late 1960’s or 1970’s. Not only has the demographic shifted again to NextGen and GenX buyers, rather than Baby Boomers, but the world has changed as well. Climate change, government mandates, and pollution globally are re-framing the marketplace. It isn’t purely buyers who are changing the future, it’s governments who are mandating it. Combined with global economics and the fact that the latest generation sees itself as unlikely to attain the same standard of living as their parents, you have an entirely different focus for the marketplace.
While electric motorcycles are taking control of the foreign marketplace in China and Asia, where the vast majority of motorcycles are now sold, in North America, and to a lesser extent, in Europe, smaller, more fuel-efficient, cheaper, and adventurous ICE or internal combustion engine designs from reliable manufacturers are seeing their markets grow.
Which brings us full-circle. What is it that North American youth want in a motorcycle?
Well, it turns out that what they want, is almost identical to what their fathers wanted, 30 years ago. A motorcycle that is cheap to purchase, cheap to operate, fun to ride, light and responsive, and reliable. To that end, both Japanese, Indian, and Chinese manufacturers are laser-focused on providing exactly that to the North American buyer.
We have all seen what happens to an organization that takes its market for granted, unwilling or incapable of changing until a point where survival rather than expansion becomes the reality. That company, now forced into rapid change, without sufficient research and experience in a new market, is floundering. Sales of their ‘innovations’ are dismal and fall well below those of Japanese, Indian and Chinese manufacturers who foresaw the market and began their transition to it, over ten years ago, and in some cases, 20 years ago.
Add to that fact that every manufacture except one mainstream Italian brand now either makes or has their motorcycles made under license in either India, China or Thailand, and it’s clear to see that the future for motorcycle production in North America is limited.
The Future is Now
The two motorcycles I deliberately chose to take photographs of and show to prospective buyers for my unscientific study were:
- The Benda BD250, and;
- Kawasaki Ninja 500
The responses from the youth of the show were as I expected, incredibly positive. It was almost a split between the two bikes depending on whether the future rider wanted speed or style, with a few off-road enthusiasts suggesting a third adventure-style bike was wanted.
Benda BD250
If you haven’t heard of Benda, it’s no surprise. Benda is a small, yet highly innovative Chinese company that manufactures motorcycles, ATVs, and UTVs. “It has a top-notch full-process system for engine design, testing, and manufacturing, as well as integrated design for motorcycles and All-Terrain vehicles.”
Based in Hangzhou, China, the company was only formed in 2016. However, in that short time, Benda has proven itself to be “one of a few innovative companies in China which is capable of developing and manufacturing large-displacement engines and vehicles.”
https://bendamoto.com/about.html
In 2023, Cycle World, published an article about Benda, calling it, “one of the more interesting of the new breed of Chinese motorcycle brands”. Benda’s recent launches have been notable for breaking with what would be considered normal in motorcycle circles.
International attention for Benda came in the form of the LF-01 concept bike in 2020, which then, unaltered became the production model LFC700 in 2021. Benda then created China’s first pair of V-4 motorcycles, the BD500 with a 496cc V-4 developing 53.6 horsepower, with a top speed of 118 mph, and a 1198cc version developing 151.5 hp, becoming China’s most powerful home-grown motorcycle.
The newest Benda iteration is a beautifully styled bobber, with a softtail-style design, 25.5 hp 249cc liquid-cooled V-twin. Unlike Honda’s Rebel 300, the Benda uses 18″ rims with a 130/80 front tire and 160/70 rear. How and when Benda will enter the North American market, and where prices will fall when they do is still anyone’s guess, but one thing will be for sure, the price will likely undercut the competition while maintaining what Cycle World, March 28, 2024, calls, “not the sort of penny-pinching, stripped-back 250 that puts cost saving above everything else, instead featuring styling that would shame a more expensive, large-capacity bike.”
The second bike I chose to query prospective new motorcyclists with was, again, the 2024 Kawasaki Ninja 500.
This motorcycle has a pedigree from Kawasaki’s Ninja line which is obvious. Providing 51 hp @ 10,000 rpm combined with 31.7 lb-ft of torque, the 379 lb. motorcycle, Cycle World suggests that “tight switchbacks, off-camber hairpins, decreasing-radius turns, and fast sprints in between all speak to the strengths of the lithe Ninja 500.”
The bike, while not overpowered, offers plenty of speed, topping out at 193 kph or 120 mph, yet the bike offers a mileage of 69 mpg.
What I found interesting from the young prospective motorcycle riders was that these two styles, (with a smattering of adventure-style enthusiasts thrown in, accounted for the vast majority of those would-be purchasers in the years to come. Again, the overwhelming consideration was price, then style, then reliability according to the cohort of young men and women I asked.
While this is in no way a scientific sampling, it does suggest that as far as American youth are considered, electric bikes as they presently are, will not be their chosen ride. Either a stylish bobber/cruiser or sport bike that is responsive, fast and fun to ride is their given choice, and the price of their chosen motorcycle is a huge factor. Not one of those I asked said that they would buy a more expensive bike than the sub -$7000 offering from Kawasaki presented.
What it suggests for companies like Harley-Davidson is that the future holds real challenges to their hopes for success. Interestingly, unlike their fathers, they were unconcerned with the fact that one of these motorcycles was Chinese. One young man’s answer was somewhat prophetic, “Look, I don’t have scads of money, but I want a bike that looks and performs great. If that’s Chinese, so be it.”
I glanced across at the expression on the face of the father of this young man, and it was evident that the two were clearly on different future paths. Again, change is requisite and time is short.
Ciao…
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