If America elects trump and turns its back on ‘leadership’ in relation to democratic states, thereby seeking isolationism, America will bring about the next World War. How it occurs, and which spark initiates it is not central to its occurrence, isolationism, is. Just as Eisenhower ensured a stable democratic alliance against the Soviet Union, by supporting American involvement and leadership in NATO, so will it be the case if NATO is reaffirmed by America in this election.
However, if America turns its back on NATO, America’s leadership will have effectively ended, and trust in America will also end. Isolationism will not serve American interests, just as it didn’t pre-December 7th, 1941. War will be visited upon an isolationist America, either in the east with China, or with Russia. The only difference being how badly democracy will be damaged by its unwillingness to lead. Trump will disassemble democratic institutions and introduce both an autocracy and kleptocracy, increasing his personal wealth at the expense of Americans, albeit not the rich.
The likelihood of a major war involving most European nations after the departure of America, will almost ensure that American interests and trade will be severely curtailed. An inward-looking America will wither, rather than grow as tariffs and trade wars will limit globalization, destroy existing supply chains and create chaos on international markets. Contractions in the economy will mean mass unemployment, particularly within manufacturing and production. Consumers will see major increases in costs for the vast majority of products produced, and America’s trade deficits will grow exponentially.
The costs associated with isolationism for consumers will be critical. Americans will spend substantively more for almost all products as material costs increase, taxes rise and tariffs strangle trade. American influence will decrease substantively as nations once allied with America, will turn to the creation of new international organizations for trade and defence without American involvement. American sales of weapon systems and technology will diminish as nations require relationships that act to guarantee arms and access to both munitions and technology. A global rise in arms production and domestic arms sales and a notable increase in protectionism by other nations will further diminish America’s production.
Economists warn of a major recession, even an economic depression if isolationism and an America First policy is enacted. International trade will suffer a calamitous downturn and conflicts over scarce resources will increase more rapidly and involve more nations. When combined with the effects of climate change, which affect the southern United States disproportionately, America’s internal divisions and dischord will reach uncontrollable levels. Violence will become the norm, beyond any level of violence America has experienced internally since the Civil War.
The future can be either consistent, forward-looking and filled with possibility or it can be thrown into chaos, strife and violence. All of this rests with the upcoming election.
Either America will seek truth, honour and empathy for a world already in a heightened level of strife and right-wing autocratic growth and competition, or will seek to build on its strengths and support a democratic and free future.
November 5th, is a scant 15 days away. You will either vote for a future or a dark and dangerous past.
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