Donald Trump has signalled that the United States will leave NATO once elected. If he succeeds in this Presidential bid, America will indeed leave NATO, and NATO will functionally cease to exist. The infrastructure necessary extends far beyond simple manpower. Manpower in Europe is sufficient to withstand the demands of a mainland war with Russia, however not in the form of a volunteer army, as conscription will be required if war extends beyond Ukraine into either Germany, Poland or the Baltic states.
What this will mean for the United States will also be profound. The US cannot expect business, industry and manufacturing to remain in a pre-war state. Sales of weapons, technology, aircraft and virtually every product necessary to support the war effort from America will collapse, along with the millions of American jobs that supports the military.
Trust, security and trade, go hand in hand. If Europe, in its totality, withdraws from America in order to ensure development of its own supplies and technology and the commensurate necessary war materials, America will have lost both trade and internal manufacturing in one fell swoop. In addition, American influence will have been dealt a devastating blow. Nations once aligned with America’s interests will form new coalitions and a new military protectionist entity and force will be created, – one without American involvement, or influence.
Will this make life difficult for former NATO members? Absolutely. Will their resentment lead to new investment in competitive weapon systems and an unwillingness to share new technologies with the United States? Very likely. Why would anyone assume that not to be the case? You cannot create an existential threat on the one hand and not suffer the effects of those actions.
As a bloc, the G7 nations share something resolute and of primary value to its citizens, democracy and the rule of law. Once the United States acts as an autocracy and retracts from support for Europe, Canada and other like-minded democracies such as those within the ASEA nations, will also look to the formation of new alliances to protect their interests. In return, America’s fortunes will slide dramatically. Without a quid pro quo of trade, security and democracy, new alliances will form that assure interdependence and the exclusion of America, no longer a trusted partner or dependable source of military equipment, intelligence and related technologies.
Today, Germany, France, the UK, Israel, Poland, Japan and South Korea are all investing heavily in their respective arms industries. And as suggested in ModernDiplomacy, February 2024,
“If our allies and partners can’t count on us (the United States) to be there, we will lose access to many military bases around the world…but here is the thing. Our nuclear-powered super carriers may have unlimited endurance, but the vessels supporting them do not. They need those bases around the world. Without friendly ports, the United States Navy doesn’t look so much like a blue water force but rather a green water navy that can only operate closer to America’s shores.”
And the ramifications for isolationism extend far beyond the obvious. Hundreds of thousands of jobs in the US depend on arms sales, and foreign sales are crucial for those firms. Nations that once trusted America will find that fear may well replace trust. By so doing, America will set into motion its own marginalization. Without the influence that nuclear protection affords nations, nuclear proliferation will be assured. Nations will seek a balance of power in order to restore some sense of independence of action, and an umbrella of protection that creates a deterrance.
America’s massive military will become a millstone around the necks of American taxpayers, as the impacts of isolation and protectionism decrease a need for American military might. Tens of thousands of displaced military personnel, without the necessary skills to transfer into industry and technological jobs, will put stress on civilian life and the finances of the state. It may also lead to an increase in resentment and anger within the US as the burgeoning unemployed population seek a scapegoat for their financial insecurity.
Without a need for a blue-water naval force capable of projecting American power, the already diminished American navy (smaller than at any time since WWII) will shrink in size and military might. While nuclear deterrence will still exist, without foreign bases and a global reach, America will become evermore dependent on its nuclear submarines for protection and force projection.
America’s major trade partners will likely seek to procure new markets for their products, particularly scarce natural resources. The very fact that scarce resources will be in demand, suggests that finding new purchasers seeking reliable supply will not be as hard to find as presumed. And, while this will take time, developing manufacturing in those adjacent nations to create the finished products, once assured through free trade, will further reduce both the sale of American products and increase the trade deficit. Countries like Canada and Mexico will find willing partners among the nations once secured by American protection and trade, increasing their free trade, further increasing the American trade deficit by the resultant decrease in importation of American goods.
Ron Erving writes in npr.org of February, 2024;
“For a time, the phrase “America First” seemed an artifact of the prewar world. But the idea that the US would do better for itself by holding the rest of the world at arm’s length never left the conversation completely. Pat Buchanan revised the theme and Donald Trump appropriated one from Ronald Reagan’s 1980 campaign, dropping just the first word; “Let’s Make America Great Again.”
He further states,
“Still, the main current of energy revitalizing isolationism today has a much older pedigree and features suspicion or rejection of international commitments including the United Nations, (which trump has suggested is ‘useless’, multiple times) world trade organizations, free trade agreements and military treaties such as NATO that obligate the US to fight on behalf of other countries.”
The impending election on November 5th may well signal a bellwether event for the west and its democratic institutions. If trump wins, the resultant shock wave in western centres of power will have consequences far beyond the worries that citizens of the west portend from trumps narcissism and sociopathic tendencies.
We will be in a new era. One with consequences far beyond the imaginings of the majority of Americans.
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