There is a metaphor about Swans that I think is highly appropriate at the moment. A Swan Song is a metaphorical phrase that refers to a final performance, or gesture that happens before retirement or death. The phrase comes from the ancient belief that swans sing a beautiful song right before they die.
Well right now, there is the sound of a Harley bagger, blaring a swan song all over the world. It’s a sound that may well not be heard again, and soon. At least not a newly manufactured song. Last week I wrote an article specifically in relation to Donald Trump’s ignorant and stupid plan to place massive tariffs on everyone from Mexico, Canada, the EU, Great Britain, China and the rest of the BRIC’s nations. If Trump does so, one of the very first victims will be Harley Davidson, and this tariff will likely be the final terminal shot through the heart of Harley Davidson.
Already forced to close one plant, and now making motorcycles under license by either Chinese or Indian motorcycle companies in Thailand or China. Harley Davidson may be going the way of KTM and the Pierer Group, which has gone into self-administration, likely to be followed by bankruptcy.
In retaliatory tariffs, Canada will likely impose an equivalent 25% tariff on HD products, which means the 8,000 bikes it sold in Canada last year will drop to zero, without doubt. HD franchises in Canada will become abandoned, selling off T-Shirts and clothing, which I’m sure won’t keep them in business.
HD already charges $54,900 for a CVO in Canada. Another twenty five percent tariff will make that Harley worth $68,625 here, before a 13% tax on top of it. Sell? No, I don’t think so. Used Harleys are already depreciating like sinking stones in a lake. I can buy a loaded 2022 Fatboy with almost no miles on it for less than $20K. There are lots of them on Kijiji under $15,000 that are just two years older and that’s before HD announces it’s going bankrupt. People will just wait out the bankruptcy and buy a new one for 30% less, or buy used watching them depreciate further by the day, till they’re satisfied they’re getting the best deal possible.
In Europe, sales were down 23% in 2024, over 2023, selling only 36,200 bikes through three quarters and the fourth quarter looks worse. If between Canada and Europe, Harley Davidson’s bikes increase by at least 25%, they won’t sell any in 2025, in which case Harley Davidson will sell less than a 100,000 bikes, globally. HD sold 98,000 motorcycles in the U.S. last year. Harley Davidson sales in the United Staes fell by 10% in 2023, it’s anticipated that sales will reduce by another 10 to 14% in 2025 based on Harley Davidson’s own projections, and that’s before the price increases by $4000 on average as Harley in the U.S. has also projected.
If the numbers turn out to be accurate and Trump goes ahead with his tariffs, sales for Harley Davidson could literally fall off a cliff, already down as much as 14% for 2024, before the tariffs are to be introduced. It is conceivable that Harley could well sell less than 80,000 motorcycles worldwide, in 2025, if tariffs are introduced. If that occurs, I can’t imagine why anyone would pay a minimum of 25% more for a Harley Davidson that might not exist by 2026. That would be half as many motorcycles as it sold (162,771) in 2023, and included are the sales figures for HD motorcycles, actually manufactured in Thailand by Hero Motorcycle of India, under license.
If you don’t think it’s possible, read the following article from Rideapart.com.
https://www.rideapart.com/features/738656/harley-motorcycle-sales-q3-2024/
It’s all up to Donald the Wunderkind now.
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