Conscription in Canada, Considered
Canada has not seen conscription since 1945, and it has only been instituted twice during WWI and WWII. But today, conscription is openly being discussed, even though a majority of Canadians may not currently be in favour of its reintroduction. However, it seems that “rather than a post-war period, we are moving into that of a pre-war world,” according to Britain’s Defence Secretary, Grant Shapps in nationalmagazine.ca (June 6, 2024).
At the present time, Canada’s full-time volunteer professional service members only total 68,000 personnel. And even with the few professionals currently in uniform, Canada cannot enlist enough personnel to meet the existing needs of the Canadian Armed Forces. The chance of an expanded war on European soil is very real. There is little doubt that Russia will not be satisfied with having secured Crimea, the Donetsk, Luhansk and the other parts of oblasts within Ukraine.
Even if a territorial settlement is reached, Russia cannot be trusted to not reequip and to again attack Ukraine. Putin’s goals are to reinstate Russia’s Empire, something that will only occur by force. If Ukraine is admitted into NATO, then the coming war will involve NATO immediately. Putin has stated emphatically that he intends on doing just that, which in turn means that the Baltic States, the remainder of Ukraine, along with Moldova and even Poland would be in Russia’s sights.
At the same time, Canadian sovereignty in the Arctic could fall into question if Canada does not develop bases and permanent military installations for all three military forces in the North and man them appropriately to deter aggression.
Russia will seek the path of least resistance, and Canada’s military, currently, would be incapable of actually stopping Russian or Chinese forces if they decided to seize sovereign territory in the Canadian Arctic. Canada’s military has neither the strength, manpower nor the necessary equipment, lift capacity, supplies or logistical capacity to become embroiled in a shooting war in the Arctic.
Americansecurityproject.org, states, “53% of the Arctic coastline belongs to Russia. Its Arctic military bases are concentrated mostly around Murmansk Oblast, but in recent years Russia has expanded capabilities in the High North. Russia has taken full advantage of its arctic territory. Wrangel Island, Cape Schmidt, and Kotelny Island developments are right across the Bering Strait from Alaska. Visualizing Russia’s Arctic presence shows the density of Russia’s military infrastructure in the region.”
The risks to maintaining sovereignty if Canada illustrates no willingness to defend its territory is significant. Canada must maintain more than simple overflights or icebreakers passing through the NorthWest Passage in order to ensure its sovereignty.
Which brings us back to the question of conscription in Canada. Canada’s NATO allies in Europe do not have the luxury of being able to ignore having sufficient manpower in the event of war with Russia. Prior to Russia’s aggression, “a host of European countries, including Norway and Finland, already had some form of conscription or national service. But the take-up has accelerated in the last couple of years. Latvia reintroduced it, while Denmark, new NATO entrant Sweden and Estonia have increased the eligibility of conscription to reach more people. Meanwhile, Germany is considering reinstating conscription again.” (National magazine.ca)
While a shooting war with NATO, however unlikely to some, if it occurred, would likely see Canada sending professional, full-time troops. But the question of conscription remains when one considers that if Canada does double its force structure and procure all the necessary weapon systems, there is no way, it would seem, for the military to attract sufficient young people to enlist voluntarily.
An involuntary mobilization would require a legislative act and then an executive act that would cause a draft to occur. Divisive though it was when instituted in the First and Second World Wars, would likely be permitted under the reasonable limits clause, particularly if it was considered essential to the security of the country.
Personally, I believe it would enhance the development of Canada’s youth who would appreciate the skills development, discipline and commitment it takes to become a member of a unit dedicated to the defence of its countries citizens. Many may find that a career in the military offers opportunities they were unaware existed.
If Canada were to maintain a force structure based in the Arctic that could act as a quick reaction force, combined with an under the ice submarine capability, year round, combined with air support, Canada would then be seen as having a credible deterrent force.
And the reality facing Canada’s military is simple, Russia is preparing to extend itself by occupying territory in the Arctic. The resource rich areas of the Arctic sit undefended. If Russia decides to physically take hold of these areas, at the moment, there is little the Canadian government could do to stop it from occurring.
However, talk of conscription comes at a time when attracting and retaining full-time, quality soldiers is a big challenge for many countries, including Canada.
As stated in the national magazine.ca, “Several years ago, the Pentagon determined that more than three-quarters of young Americans would not be able to join the military if they wanted to because of obesity, lack of education or mental health problems.” Canada recently chose to relax some rules in order to boost voluntary enlistment numbers available. But, so far, even this has met with little success.
With approximately 440,000 Canadian men and women turning 18 years of age each year, it should be far from problematic to entice 6% of that cohort to serve in the military, yet today, youth do not seem to have any interest in serving or protecting the nation they call home.
The Canadian Army will require approximately 4 more complete Brigades totalling 22,500 personnel, if Canada doubles its force structure. One would think that with educational incentives, like those in place for American servicemen, it should not be difficult for the Canadian Armed Forces to find sufficient personnel out of a pool of 440,000 eighteen year old men and women.
To put these numbers into perspective, one must understand how many soldiers Canada sent to war in WWII, when the Canadian Army mustered 771,000 personnel, out of a population of just over 12 million people. Today the sense of entitlement is such that it is difficult to even incentivize a significant portion of today’s youth to work, at anything, – never mind put their lives on the line in defence of their country.
If a shooting war does begin in Europe that draws NATO in, we will likely discover how quickly the Canadian Government prioritizes strength in numbers, although attempting to ramp up training, particularly when weapons technology is ever increasing, may prove difficult on short notice. It would make sense for Canada to be doing so at the earliest opportunity.
As for protecting Canada’s sovereignty in the Arctic, I have my doubts that today’s youth will be willing to even face the cold.
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