There is barely a moment goes by anymore that Herr Trump isn’t threatening someone. His “Golden Age” for America will end up with America being isolated geopolitically, seeing what could have been growth and stability turned into a significant loss of international influence, with many former friends and allies seeking new markets, developing preferential trade with each other, as well as imposing massive tariffs on American products in response.
Canadians are at the point where ‘we’ may well be willing to see tariffs imposed and have Canada shut off its oil and electricity exports to the U.S. And why not, — America obviously has no respect for friends. Trump denigrates friends and allies alike. Maybe it is time for Canada to create a completely new import and export regimen, where Europe, the UK, Japan, Korea, Vietnam and – yes, China receive favoured nation status.
China, though Communist, may well be the export market for Canadian resources if America turns its back on Canada. And why not? China, India, Poland, Turkey and Brazil are all nations that will continue to grow in trade, technologies, and geopolitical influence in the coming decades. At the same time, American labour is quickly making American products overtly expensive on the world markets, so it would be in Canada’s best interest to diversify its trade and agreements with trading partners, in any event. Trump may just be the impetus that Canada needs to break out of America’s zone of influence.
Mexico is willing to enter into a tariff war with the United States and China, and like Canada, feels that American tariffs; should they be imposed, will be reciprocated, in spades. Last year, the U.S. imported 3.2 Trillion in goods including 94% of its seafood, 54% of its fruit and 32% of its vegetables.
Even more importantly, America imported 8.2 million barrels of oil per day, 52% of which, came from Canada, and 11% from Mexico. The U.S. also imports 36 and 79 Terawatts of electrical energy from Canada and Mexico, and climate change is having a devastating effect on ever increasing levels of heat and subsequent drought in the U.S., making demands on America’s electrical grid ever more difficult.
When combined with the need for increased air conditioning, and electricity for electric vehicles, America will need every kilowatt it can get its hands on. Not to mention that the number and severity of storms across the southern United States will have a debilitating effect on the status of the power grid.
Canada, with a population roughly 12.1% of the U.S. population has extensive water resources, and while much of that water flows North, it can be engineered to flow south if needed, as all the sources of water production lie within Canada. Though this may well seem extreme, it is no more extreme than what California and Arizona have been doing, for 70 years, bringing water from the Northwest to California. Of course, to Canada’s advantage, having only 12% of America’s population means that consumption is not nearly as problematic in contrast.
America seems determined to alienate its neighbours at a time when collaboration is most needed. The supply chains, both North and South wouldn’t just be disrupted, they would be severely damaged if trump imposed a 25% tariff on Canadian goods, and while Canada imports a variety of products from the U.S., strategically the goods travelling south are of more importance to the U.S. than those travelling north.
Canada can increase its manufacturing capacity to replace machinery and the imports of vehicles. Nationalizing Canada’s oil and gas production would provide much greater profit for Canadians, and the means to increase refining in Canada for the export of finished products to Japan, China and Europe is more than possible. Why send raw products south, only to be refined and sent back at a premium? It’s time to change that equation in any event.
At the same time Canada can increase its imports from both Europe and China on products now imported from the U.S.. Food stuffs would require new routing by ship, and new independent trade agreements with Mexico and South America, – but doing so is more than possible if mandated. Particularly when those countries need Canadian resources reciprocally.
All of this comes at a time where the United States will become increasingly needy for water. But where will it come from? Though Canada has 20% of the world’s freshwater storage, I would suggest that based on trump’s behaviour, it won’t be from Canada, unless Canada receives cooperation on tariffs.
Remember, Canadians will have a long memory when it comes to threats and trade wars. Canada’s massive resource potential in the North will assure Canadians of stability, irrespective of America’s actions, and while Canadians will certainly feel the impacts of trump’s arrogant and self-interested plans, so will the average American consumer, for the costs of all tariffs will be borne by the American consumer directly.
But Canadians are well educated and capable of finding solutions and alternatives that will diminish or negate America’s actions in the long term, and many Canadians, myself included, have been asking the Canadian Federal Government to radically decrease its trade with the U.S. in order to insure freedom of action in an uncertain world.
With respect to resources, especially water, we are all aware of how expensive turning salt water into potable water is, (just look at Southern California’s experience) and the Ogallala Aquifer will likely be 70% depleted within 50 years, leaving eight states without the necessary groundwater for crops and drinking water at a time when heatwaves and drought will decrease the aquifers availability due to surface evaporation, aquifer refill rates and increased demand.
But not to worry. It only takes 6000 years for the aquifer to replenish, so its depletion won’t likely have all that much effect on America, will it?
Trump may end up being the best thing that ever happened to Canada.
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