Wall Street is hoping that Europe isn’t completely serious about only procuring weapons and weapons systems from European manufacturers.
American economists are hoping this isn’t true, suggesting that Europe decoupling its defence industry from the U.S., will have profound long-term implications for American manufacturers.
It is certainly capable of doing so, as some of the best weapons systems and platforms in the world come from Europe.
Some American manufacturers think they can ‘get around’ the procurement restrictions, by using American suppliers with manufacturing plants in Europe or the U.K., just as Trump is intending on doing with American auto and re-shoring manufacturing through tariffs.
U.S. companies base their assertions on a seven decade relationship.
The fact is that Trump has destroyed the seven decade relationship by his actions in extorting Ukraine, Canada and Europe.
Europeans and Canadians no longer give a damn if the ‘relationship’ was once ‘special’.
Just like a wife who finds her husband cheating on her, Canada, the U.K. and the E.U., aren’t willing to give the U.S. a second or third change.
Extortion crossed a line that is irreversible.
We simply don’t want American products, even if it delays procurement. In the long run building strength into the domestic military industrial complex serves our future interests.
While the short term does pose issues, the mid-term and longer do not. The French, German’s, Poles and Canadians are intent on not spending one thin Euro or dime in America.
“The first Trump administration might have looked like an aberration, but his second term may reflect deeper long-term shifts in US foreign policy…exploring options to develop substitute capabilities with European allies may be the next logical move, despite the challenges.” Michael Witt, King’s College, CNBC, Mar. 27, 2025.
While economy of scale in the European and Canadian defence industry may slow the procurement process, the EU and Canada are not overtly concerned about a future of interoperability with the United States, which has proven that it cannot be relied upon.
While American investment may flow into Europe to support procurement programs with the intention of America acquiring companies within the EU and Canada, the EU and Canada may preclude this from happening by regulation.
At heart is the question, ‘Qui Bono’. There is no way that either the EU or Canada will allow American companies to benefit from trump’s attempts at extortion.
In the long run, building a robust and completely native military industrial complex between Canada, the EU, and the U.K., will be highly beneficial.
If Canada chooses to join the nuclear deterrent club, France is the logical choice as it has been built completely domestically. Canada has all of the necessary components and expertise to develop the same systems in Canada.
America has succeeded in driving the EU, U.K., and Canada away from it. America is now considered an existential threat to Canada’s sovereignty and future.
It isn’t a question of whether we can ‘afford’ to go it alone. It’s a question of whether we can afford ‘not to’.
Never in Canada’s existence has it trusted America, — less.
I have no doubt that Canada will move as far from America’s sphere of influence, as quickly as possible, now that Trump’s kleptocracy is in existence in the U.S.
The impetus for Canadian and European arms manufacturers to build new capacity and capability has never been greater, ever.
During the Korean War, Canada spent more than 8% of GDP on defence.
Canada will, if necessary, do so now as well.
Going to at least 2.5% of GDP is foreseen shortly, to be increased to the new 3% target by NATO in Europe, or to the name of the new European Defence Force.
Spending in excess of 64 Billion dollars on defence will occur, irrespective of the impacts on social programming. Survival is imperative.
Canada is going to recast its future with Europe.
And while breaking ties with the United States will create issues, it is deemed essential.
When your neighbour comes to your door and threatens you with an economic knife, you simply bar the door and go and buy a shotgun.
That’s where Canada’s relationship with the U.S. rests today.
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