Alberta is once again flapping about Alberta sovereignty. Every time Conservatives don’t get their way, they drag out the ‘western alienation’ bag and throw it around.
Alberta and Saskatchewan may well seek to create a new nation, but the reality is that doing so would come with tremendous costs.
Having said that, the likelihood of it happening, based on recent polls, suggests that Albertans do not feel particularly secure in considering separation. The reasons are many.
America is no benign, ‘we love you Alberta’ force in geopolitical politics. The likelihood is that should Alberta decide to join the U.S., for example, Albertans would lose their ability to control and sell their resources. America is as likely to suck Alberta dry, as it is to respect the use of its resource base.
“There certainly is opposition to pipelines in the United States and NEPA is actually a much bigger stumbling block to approval than the Canadian environmental assessment rules and process,”
https://energi.media/markham-on-energy/albexit-alberta-separation-is-a-dumb-idea/
Additionally, the U.S. only wants Albertan oil at a discount. To assume that somehow America would pay more than they are already paying is irrational.
“By the time Alberta seceded, there is a very good chance the global low-carbon economy wil have arrived.”
Alberta is not entitled.
“Well, Alberta is not owed even one pipeline.
The world– including Canada—has changed in the past decade, not least its attitude toward crude oil and pipelines.
Canadians know alternatives are coming. They worry about climate change and the environment. Support for the energy transitionis is strong and growing.
And they tell pollsters that as long as Canada supports the transition to electricity from low-carbon technologies (hydro, wind, solar, tidal), then they will support pipelines.
Alberta can achieve its pipeline objectives within Confederation, but only if it admits that new attitudes, strategies, and tactics are required by industry and Alberta’s political leaders.
Business as usual clearly isn’t working, but Albexit isn’t the solution.
https://energi.media/markham-on-energy/albexit-alberta-separation-is-a-dumb-idea/
The second option would be to retain its sovereignty, but find itself landlocked in Canada, without access to tidewater.
While Albertan’s believe they could secure tidewater access, it would require the collaboration of Canada, British Columbia and native nations across British Columbia.
To go east, would amount to the same problem, unless Alberta and Saskatchewan could convince Manitoba to enable rail and pipeline access through Hudson’s Bay and again, it would have to secure agreements with Manitoba, Canada and native nations enroute.
Even the vote to secede from Canada would be a fitful process, as Canada can apply considerable weight to what it determines to be “clear expression” of the will of the population to separate.
Canada’s Clarity Act could determine that whatever the margin, “does not consitute a clear majority in favour of separation. A clear expression may be deemed to be 70% of Albertans.”
Based on Quebec’s experience, “It is possible for Alberta to separate from Canada, but the process would be long, uncertain, and fraught with difficulty.”
Even after having won a referendum, Alberta would face massive costs to be paid to Canada in the event of separation, including their share of the national debt and repaying for national infrastructure, military, social services, etc, etc.
Not only would there be significant costs associated with separation, but there is no guarantee that Canada would be willing to allow trade in direct competition with other Canadian producers, corporations or provincial governments.
Alberta would need to contruct its own military, currency, social service network, pensions, hospitals, etc, etc.
The most interesting fact is that while Danielle Smith is very vocal in her support for sovereignty, currently, only 19% of Albertans are, — when the question is specifically ‘independence’ from Canada without trade guarantees.
Remember, Canada does not have to maintain an amicable relationship, should Alberta leave Canada.
I can’t imagine that the vast majority of ‘Canadians’ would wish to maintain an amiable relationship with those who have turned their back on it.
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