The actions of America’s president have not only forced Canada to rethink its entire relationship with the U.S., it has made Canadians decide that their economic future, and their sovereignty can never again be leveraged by U.S. self-interest. To that end, Canada has, in less than ten months, dropped its trade dependence on the U.S. by as much as 16%.
The intent is to lower that as much as possible, in as short a time period as possible, and keep it below a threshold that enables Canada and Canadians to feel at risk.
There actually is no real number that one can subscribe to in order to reach a definitive point where leverage can be exercised.
But what has happened in the last 11 months is very significant for Canada.
First all losses in terms trade to and from the United States, both down approximately 2% has been more than up for by the increases in trade to the EU, the UK, and the rest of the world.
So Trump’s tariff have had no effect in terms of lost revenues to Canada, overall. Sectorial changes have hit Ontario the most, due to the U.S. imposing tariffs on the auto sector and the auto parts sector, almost exclusively.
Canada’s Mitigation Strategies
Canada has a fair bit of leverage in relation to the U.S. when it comes to the following strategic considerations.
- Energy Security – largest supplier of energy to the U.S.
- CUSMA – enables a wide range of Canadian goods to enter the U.S. tariff free
- Diversification – is a key for Canada going forward, but it takes time. In addition, many countries that are highly important in terms of market size are currently undergoing downward economic pressures, like much of the EU. Meanwhile China is also in a downward spiral, restricting growth opportunities.
- Retaliation – holds some very important leverage over the U.S. in relation to energy sales, aluminum, fertilizer, oil exports and a variety of other products where America has been the principal importer of those products.
America’s economic power and growth has been in the form of AI and within the services sector, which contributes over 80% of U.S. GDP. Any fiscal dislocation, such as nations deciding to drop American debt (8.8 trillion), or should the AI bubble burst, would leave America highly exposed to a financial market crash, which would cascade through America like a tsunami.
With the current fiscal picture already looking challenging, either of these events could simply derail America’s goals of hegemony, never mind national stability.
Internally, as of today a national poll suggested that the King of America is now disapproved of by 82% of Americans in relation to his attacks on Denmark, Greenland. Canada and the EU.
The Future
No matter what America does in the future, based on the experience Canada has experienced in the last year, Canada will become purely a transactional neighbour.
Sixty-four percent of Canadians consider the U.S. either an enemy or do not trust the U.S..
Sixty-two percent of Canadians distrust and dislike the King of America.
Trade between Canada and the U.S. will continually decline with Canadian exporters focused on new markets.
Prime Minister Mark Carney has stated unequivocally that the previous relationship between Canada and the U.S/ is now over. That reality is being exercised economically, politically and importantly, in relation to military ‘partnership’.
Canada’s federal government and Canadians are committed to moving away from the U.S.
Canada will continue to act in the interests of Canadians and will never concede Canada’s sovereignty, in any form, to the US.
As has been seen, and will continue to do so, Canadians do not wish to visit or vacation in the U.S. anymore. In just the last year, Canadians have decreased trip and vacations to the U.S. by approximately 29% overall, with the intent of reducing that further to a target of 50% in the coming year.
This was caused directly and solely because of the King of the U.S.
But the biggest change overall is in the actions now being taken to build a whole society defence in Canada, where the nations regular forces and reserve forces. (Including what will be Canada’s Supplementary Reserve forces) to approximately 500,000 from what was 120,000.
The military budget has been increased from approximately 2% this year to 3% by 2030 and 5% of GDP by 2035, where Canada will be spending more on defence than Russia, at 150 billion dollars.
Canada will trade with America, but it will not be held hostage to or by America.
If DJT, continues to demand that all nations bow down and kiss the ring, undoubtedly Canada will come to a point where it will then seek formal entry into the EU as a non-voting member, which Europe is already considering as America’s Kleptocrat in Chief pushes and pursues other sovereign states to capitulate and either join or face invasion by the U.S.
If that were to occur, NATO would no longer exist, or at least U.S. membership in NATO would no longer exist.
The ramifications of that would truly end America’s role as a superpower, as the world would then embargo America completely and force all American military bases in Europe, Canada, and likely many in the far east to close and remove any and all of their aircraft, ships and land-based equipment.
It would also mean that many nations would join BRICS and regardless of ideological concerns, side with China.
At that point would no longer be a superpower. In fact, it won’t be a hegemonic power either, as none of the Western Hemisphere’s nations will accede anything to the U.S.
Within America
While the U.S. sabre rattles, inside America the domestic problems continue to mount along with the anger and complete distrust of America’s Kleptocratic and Plutocratic government.
The probability of significant civil disobedience and the willingness to take up arms against this government and its fascist behaviour is growing exponentially.
America itself may implode in violence without any external action from foreign governments in the near future.
The future is almost unpredictable due to the fact that America’s leadership, (oxymoron) is unstable and erratic to the point of complete chaos.
Canadians will prepare, in every aspect of preparedness, and continue to minimize its involvement with the U.S. while mitigating the economic damage to the greatest extent that it can.
But as for a future relationship with the U.S. that will see a return to trusting America.
Never.
Americans have a better chance of winning the Powerball, I’m afraid.
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