The Anti-Trump Trade Alliance

Political Editorial Opinion

America’s Inevitable Collapse is Already in Motion

Since Davos, and its watershed event and speech by Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney, it has been patently clear that the world will not sit idly by while the United States tries to turn back the clock to 1898 and America’s Imperial ambitions of that day.

Mark Carney, is a brilliant strategist and tactician, that is playing chess against an American administration that can’t even find the pieces on the board.

Carney is bridging two trade groups that control about one-third of the world’s economy. These two groups, of primarily middle powers, have fundamentally agreed to join their economic alliance in order to take away U.S. leverage and its ability to illegally extort other nations.

Bridging the CPTPP or Trans-Pacific Partnership and the European Union creates a new trading bloc made up of forty (40) nations from opposite sides of the globe with the aim or reaching a deal on so-called rules of origin.

These rules determine the economic nationality of a product. A deal between these two groups is formative and evolutionary. It will take away America’s ability to threaten other nations by introducing a seamless low-tariff process known as cumulation.

By combining their economic forces, it ”allows this new organization to push back on the fragmentation of what was free trade in the wake of Trump’s Liberation Day Tariffs.”

https://www.politico.eu/article/eu-and-indo-pacific-blocs-eye-major-new-trade-pact/

The value in the new trade pact was emphasized by a Japanese trade official who stated;

“We see a lot of value in increasing trade among the EU and CPTPP parties, which would also contribute to enhancing supply chain resilience. An agreement on rules of origin would be an interesting topic to explore.”

The EU is already on board, as they too are feeling a clear distrust and an aggregating animosity towards America and this particular extortive regime.

While support for the rules-of-origin deal is growing louder due to support from both Brussels and London, it is the German Chamber of Commerce and Industry (DIHK) and the British Chamber of Commerce that are already squarely in support of the pact.

Klemens Kober, director of trade policy, EU customs and Transatlantic relations at the DIHK stated, “All relevant actors are looking at it.”

A Tsunami Against Protectionism and American Tariffs

The fact that the CPTPP’s members, including New Zealand, Japan, the U.K. and Canada already have trade deals with the EU, makes the likelihood of “cumulating origin between different FTAa very useful.” Kober stated.

Intertwining the supply chains of members like Canada, Singapore, Mexico, Japan, Vietnam, Malaysia and Australia with Europe brings 40 nations together under one free trade regimen, that is already expected to grow substantively, as other nations see the risks to non-alignment with the GT0, which will provide much greater protection against America’s attempts at extortion and coercion.

MERCOSUR already has a new agreement with the EU, and will likely entertain joining what will be one the world’s largest trading blocs, representing approximately 40% of the world’s economies.

The aim is to increase this to a point where 65% of the world’s economies are joined in the new free trade and cumulation model.

While it will take some time to complete integration and drop tariffs, if not totally, to levels that balance the trade relationships between all its members, it will accomplish the following:

It will effectively bypass U.S. Tariffs by allowing the organization to mitigate the impact of U.S. tariffs and trade policies.

Strengthening supply chains will allow for alignment between the EU and CPTPP countries, facilitating smoother trade.

It will lower, if not eliminate tariffs. Products made with components from either bloc (or likely additional blocs) will qualify for reduced tariffs.

It will provide economic stability. The alliance is designed to provide more predictable and a return to a rules-based trading environment, without America with its caustic and coercive actions meant to extort other nations.

Negotiations are ongoing, and rapidly approaching the point not just of agreement, but working groups to restructure trade based on a concrete rules-based approach, that again, will reduce, if not eliminate the ability of the United States to coerce individual nations on a transactional basis.

The proposed organization represents a significant shift in global trade dynamics, with a focus on collaboration among middle powers to counteract economic coercion, principally by the United States, but also to a lesser degree, China.

American Hegemony Rebuked

What the new ‘Global Trade Organization’, for want of a better term, will achieve is to rebuke America and its hegemonic goals. Now that the United States has destroyed the preexisting rules-based trade order, the creation of a multipolar world, where America’s influence is radically lessened, will result in the possibility of growth for those member states within the new GTO, and for those outside, diminishing returns, that will only get worse as time goes on.

And of course, a third multipolar financial trade group already exists with BRICS,which controls approximately 44% of the world’s GDP.

America has created the conditions and the impetus for middle powers to bypass America completely. The United States only represents 10-12% of world trade and 4.2% of the world’s population. It cannot counter an organization that will likely comprise 66% of world trade, which is not only the objective, but the likely outcome of America’s coercion attempts, threats and extortion.

What the new GTO points to is that the U.S. is now highly vulnerable to losing its economic global preeminence. Foreign investment, and the holding of foreign debt, (est. 8.8 trillion U.S. dollars) will likely flow out of the U.S. as corporations, nations and investors (hedge funds, mutual funds and investment funds) seek safety from what is likely to become a highly volatile financial environment inside the United States.

And while, for the moment, the U.S. dollar is the world’s reserve currency, it may well not be the case in just a scant three years. America already a massive debt that is leveraged against its GDP, which by the end of 2026 may well be in the neighbourhood of 42 Trillion dollars U.S.

What will happen to the U.S. economy if interest rates take a substantive jump?

Right now America pays more in debt servicing than the expenditure on Defence.

At the rate that the US is accumulating debt, America may well be at 160% of Debt to GDP by the time Trump leaves office, as the world is on the cusp of considering dumping the 8.8 trillion dollars of U.S. debt held by other nations.

A global recession, even depression is then likely, which no one wants, however if America continues t sabre rattle, threatening neighbours, former allies and one partners, it may well occur in order to deliberately create such financial instability in the U.S. that further foreign adventures and entanglements will be beyond America’s capacity.

If that should happen, and investors flee American insecurity, at best a depression can be expected.

The arrogance and hubris of America, coupled with the greed and arrogance of Americans may well lead to an economic collapse that the U.S. has not seen in over 90 years.

When combined with the debacle that faces the US, if AI collapses, itself having leveraged 700 billion dollars in less than a year, the future may well look bleak for America, and any nation that stays invested in America’s future and fortune.