The Counter Hegemonic Union Group (CHUG)

Political Editorial Opinion

There come’s a time where historically a ‘break point’ occurs at which the previous power regime changes. We have now reached that point.

It happens for a variety of reasons, often due to a combination of factors related to power dynamics, greed, societal behavioural and belief changes created by political swings from liberal to ultra-conservative, as an example.

In relation to the United States of America, what has made the current situation particularly problematic has been that the swing has combined with a leader and administration that has no intention to be truthful or democratic, which of course has led to the problems that America now faces.

Autocracy and Kleptocracy Now Is The Reality

Pretending that the United States is ‘still a democracy’ is almost surreal thinking, as every aspect of democracy, its institutions, policies, process and actions have been either corrupted, damaged or actually functionally removed.

The actions taken by the current administration clearly illustrate that there is not just no ‘intent’ to honour democracy, but willfully to dismantle it. So speaking as though it’s simply a minor issue that will be rectified at the next election, is wholly irrational as well.

The Reality of ‘Rupture’

For former allies, trade partners and neighbours, the rupture as described at Davos by Prime Minister Carney of Canada, is not ‘fixable’. The United States has clearly made a ‘choice’, not once, but twice, to enact a new political reality in the United States, one that is no longer democratic or underpinned by the institutions of a democracy.

Be that as it may, it therefore behooves those former allies to react to the new reality and make the necessary changes to ensure their economic and sovereign interests.

For Canada, the hardest hit of all nations in relation to the ‘changes’ chosen by America, that means a complete restructuring of almost all of Canada’s policies vis-a-vis the United States. These include;

• Trade and every facet of trade practices
• Economic policy
• Military policies
• Immigration and emigration policies
• Foreign Affairs
• Alliances
• Organizational behaviour
• Procurement and development

Sovereignty Protection and Trade Practices

Canada is a trading nation, and has historically utilized the fact of proximity and societal similarity with the United States, such that the Canada-US trade relationship has been extremely close. It was only rational to trade primarily with a neighbour that was ten times larger and that needed the wide variety of minerals, products and commodities that Canada produced.

That was until America threw away the rules based order, international law, and decided to abrogate its agreements in trade with Canada. To compound the problem, the U.S. unilaterally tore up trade agreements, added punitive tariffs on Canadian imports and then threatened Canada with annexation.

This wholesale change, in fact, this rupture in behaviour and US unilateral actions has essentially torn up an 80 year old relationship that had been based on mutual benefit, collaboration and joint military defence, now all essentially dismantled or effectively made irrational.

Once cannot on the one hand expect mutual defence on the one hand and threaten annexation with the other. It obviates the need, — no, that’s not true, — it demands Canada act to protect its sovereignty, its economic future and its trade relationship completely and utterly.

The Necessity For New Alliances

Canada has a population of approximately 42 million people. The United States has a population of approximately 340 million or 12.4% of America’s population.

In order to protect Canada’s interests and not be subjugated by the United States, which is clearly America’s intent, Canada has sought to diversify and to militarize. This obviously cannot be accommodated overnight, nor is it fiscally rational to attempt to do so.

But that being said, Canada has sought to create a new international trade organization that enables middle-powers to counter the hegemonic aims of the United States, as it has clearly articulated it intends to achieve.

Without reiterating the last year of Canada’s diversification strategy, it is obvious that Canada is moving away from U.S., and as Mark Carney clearly stated at Davos, the old order, is over. Therefore, Canada will continue to diversify and to seek the expansion of trade with new trade partners and their respective trade organizations.

Canada’s New Trade Relationship Aims

In order for Canada to eventually replace the remaining 60% of its former trade with the United States, Canada needs more than simply increasing trade with its former partners.

Diversification demands that Canada both seek, and create new alliances and trade relationships which formerly were either for ideological reasons or due to distance, made such actions less likely or practicable for both prospective parties.

My choice for the expansion of trade would likely be to see a new multipolar assemblage of social democracies (practical choices, not conjecture) that include the following nations.

• Japan
• ROK (Republic of Korea)
• Australia
• New Zealand
• The European Union, including Norway, and;
• The United Kingdom

Canada is open to expansion of this group, however due to the existing trade relationships with groups like the (TPP) or Trans-Pacific Partnership Agreement, MERCOSUR, and independent and unaligned nations, including those nations that are considered emerging economies must be where Canada focuses its trade and its economic interests.

It is therefore likely that over time, the importance of trade with the United States will obviously diminish. A fact that has the current administration emboldened to suggest that annexation or outright invasion may be a consideration in the future.

The Necessity for Militarization

Canada must militarize in order to protect its sovereignty and sovereign interests. To do this, Canada will increase its military spending significantly from approximately 1.76% of GDP to 5% of GDP by 2035.

This of course creates significant economic pressures on the Canadian program, particularly with respect to social services and health programming.

The actions of the United States are not welcomed in Canada. To be blunt, the economic rupture that the current U.S. administration in Washington has created will lead to Canada no longer being allied in any fundamental way with America.

America is no longer a democratic country. It may well call itself that, but the reality is that it is not. Therefore Canadians, who believe in the rule of law, rights and freedoms for all, including minorities, free speech and the social protections of health coverage, as well as free trade, means that for all Canadians, our willingness to ‘go along to get along’ is essentially over.

Canada will, as well, trade with whomever it chooses to do so. Independence of action and interests is up to Canadians and its democratic institutions, — not foreign interests.

Canadians will not be subjugated to any other countries hegemonic demands, therefore the United States is no longer either a friend, partner or ally.

Canada’s future partners, weather they functionally become known as partners in the (GTO) or Global Trade Organization, or what may become known as (CHUG), the Counter Hegemonic Union Group, will entail a completely new trade framework, new policies, new partnerships, within a rules-based system that respects International Law and International Trade Rule and Laws.

The End of Canada’s Integration with America and Its Interests

What US actions obviate is the necessity for Canada to change. The change is an inconvenient truth, one that suggests clearly that the United States of America is no longer a partner in any real sense.

Canada will still trade with America when it suits it, however it will scale its trade in such a manner that in the future, no dependencies exist with the United States.

Supply chains, production, mineral extraction, pipelines, energy distribution and transmission will all need to be modified in order to assure Canadians that liabilities are minimized as well.

It’s obvious that Canada and Canadians can no longer trust America.

You don’t stab a trade, defence and economic partner in the back after 80 years of joint benefit to both parties and then assume that the relationship can continue, as it was.

That is now over.

Canadians will not mourn that reality. We are adept at change, that has been enervated through education and a wealth of resources within Canada.

It’s simply time to move on.

And to that end, America should as well.