Are Younger People Today More Risk Averse, and what are the factors that will enhance their purchase and use of motorcycles in the future?
Today, seeing a young person riding a motorcycle is almost a surprise. While I’ve been aware for a while that the motorcycling community seems to be aging, the argument was, for the most part, that the reason for fewer, and dramatically fewer riders entering the sport was due to economics. But is that true?
The truth is that when adjusted for inflation, motorcycling is about the same in terms of cost, as it was when I was 18 years old. So, if it isn’t economics, then what seems to be the cause?
It would seem that there are two possible reasons. Each has been analyzed and studied by psychology studies to attempt to develop a rational theory related to young people and motorcycling. One is the belief that today’s youth are strictly speaking, more risk-averse. The second option is that today’s youth have been raised in a sanitized lifestyle. Their parents sanitize everything, from door knobs to shopping carts. Some won’t even shake hands for fear of germs or viruses. Youth are being raised to become immune to the fun that involves excitement, especially where an element of risk is involved.
Every facet of life today offers vicarious thrills, watch don’t do, see, don’t touch. Youtube has taken over from the playground, and even there, everything must be intrinsically safe. Nothing sharp, made of materials that absorb impact, nothing too demanding, nothing overtly challenging.
It extends to transportation itself. Supposedly people are incapable of paying attention, so we take away control. Cars now stop by themselves, and/or can warn drivers of cars approaching or in other lanes. A safer world has become a disinterested more insular world. Soon you’ll be able to drive a car while watching your iPad. Autonomous vehicles that are safe and insular seem to be the focus of engineers.
Whenever one rides you are met with the attitude related to how dangerous it is to ride a motorcycle People are fearful, and hesitant to do any activity they deem more risky than making toast in their kitchen. In turn, riders are becoming defensive about having to justify their choice of transportation. The dangers of riding are repeated so often, that even dedicated riders are becoming risk averse.
The problem as I see it, is simple. When people are not immersed in the act of driving and are not required to be in the moment, there is the capacity for accidents and injuries to riders. The problem is that the riders themselves have no control over the inattention or unwillingness to address the fact that drivers are inattentive, distracted, or unwilling to simply be involved in the act of operating a moving vehicle that weighs more than two tons and will kill with impunity when in contact with a two-wheel motorcycle.
Rather than becoming risk averse, we need riders to speak up and demand that vehicle operators who are inattentive and maim or kill motorcyclists by their inattention pay a much heavier price for that inattention. If drivers were to lose the ability to drive a vehicle, period, when at fault for striking a motorcycle or making a turn into a motorcycle that results in a fatality, then they might pay attention. Many drivers see their ability to drive as a right, not a privilege.
However, there is another movement afoot that seems to provide hope for the motorcyclist community writ large, and it occurred because of one of the most unusual situations in recent memory, that being the outbreak of the Covid pandemic. As William Roberson wrote in Forbes magazine on Oct. 7th, 2020, while motorcycle sales in the US and Canada were increasingly on the decline, the COVID-19 pandemic hit, and motorcycle and bicycle sales started to increase, often at double-digit rates. (This doesn’t apply to larger, or more powerful motorcycles, as cost, ability, and buyer interest are much lower there.)
The obvious assumption was that people were purchasing personal transportation to avoid mass transit. Avoiding exposure to the virus became the aim. It was also notable that the vehicle traffic dropped appreciably. For many, this translated into greater safety on the roads due to a lack of traffic. Electric bikes saw the biggest uptake in purchases as younger people wanted a reliable means of getting to work while avoiding traffic via the use of bicycle lanes. This also translated into less cost, as no licensing or registration was required, and ‘e-bikes’ offered increasingly more powerful electric bikes to cover greater distances. They were also, generally cheaper than motorcycles to purchase.
This new cadre of riders, while mostly bicycles, created the “transpotainment” movement, where people wanted a vehicle that did the job of moving people about but was also fun. Combined with the perceived lower risk of trails and roadways where other motor vehicles could not go, these people gained confidence in two-wheeled transportation. Today, the focus by younger riders is now on small-displacement, but full-size machines. The growth and acceleration in motorcycles that fall within the 200cc to 400cc range is significant. More affordable, better quality machines that are more approachable and affordable are getting the attention of new riders, especially women.
The transition from e-bikes to scooters to small displacement motorcycles, in some ways suggests the possibility of a resurgence of motorcycling. The simple act of ‘doing’, of riding a two-wheeled conveyance is to some, liberating. The realization that riding a bike or motorcycle is both fun and practical seems to have supplanted fear and the aversion to risk that seemed to be becoming a mainstream thought of younger people in general.
Will this be enough to ensure motorcycling continues successfully to attract new riders? That is the $69 question. In Asia and Europe, to some extent, motorcycling, specifically electric motorcycles is increasingly popular. An increasing awareness of global warming and its impacts on weather systems is reflected by new demands on manufacturers to develop more sustainable motorcycles and batteries that are both more powerful in terms of energy density while being created with new components that are not damaging to the environment.
To this end, billions of dollars are being spent on new battery technologies. Several of these new designs are already coming to market and will revolutionize motorcycling as we know it. Rare earth minerals and Lithium will no longer be required. Metal oxides are also not going to be required. New large-capacity sodium storage batteries are being created to store massive electrical capacities to maximize the benefits of wind and solar energy, and a commensurate reduction in the burning of fossil fuels, through electrification. The focus is becoming that of ensuring that the electrification system itself does not use fossil fuels, and expansion of technologies that are zero emitters in its production.
In Canada, the “Zero Emission Vehicle Infrastructure Program” has committed 500 million dollars to ZEV charging and refueling infrastructure. What this means in practical terms is that “Canada will develop 84,500 electric fast chargers and 49 hydrogen stations by 2029.”
Most of these chargers are being developed at fossil fuel motor vehicle stations, with three major liquid-petroleum companies planning for extensive expansion of Class 3 electric chargers, Canada-wide. Right now in Canada, there are 22,000 Class 3 charger locations coast to coast.
Additionally, electric production in Canada is much more sustainable as a much higher percentage of generation comes from hydro development or, as in Ontario, from Nuclear power. Government policies are and will remain, the primary driver for a a net-zero emissions regime by 2050, which will see rapid development by the public sector involved in power generation away from fossil fuels.
The creation of a network across the country has not been without its challenges. Many locations do not charge by the kWh, so rates vary. The Federal Government is enacting legislation that will require a standard kWh charging rate, enforced by the Federal Government. Additionally, chargers do not necessarily have all the required charging adapters for various vehicles, including motorcycles.
It’s clear that the development of hybrid motorcycles, like Kawasaki’s Ninja 7 Hybrid may well be popular, as it offers unlimited range utilizing an ICE as well as an electric motor. Until all the bugs are eliminated, solely electric motorcycles will not see greater adoption across the country for larger electric motorcycles that demand a level 3 fast-charge capability.
Commuters who use electric motorcycles are however one of the fastest-growing segments of the motorcycle market, worldwide. Having the capability to travel 100 miles on a charge, and use a common household 110v electric plug to recharge overnight, their sales are increasing at a rapid rate in Asia and in Europe. In North America, their adoption has not been as rapid for a variety of reasons, including the distance of commutes for many riders.
As we move closer to 2026, and the number of motorcycles available with a range comparable to ICE motorcycles increases, combined with incentive programs by the government, the adoption of electric-only motorcycles will inevitably increase. The Canadian Government’s plans to develop a substantive number of rapid charging locations across the country, combined with a cap on pricing for charging will also result in greater acceptance.
Of course, for many of us who are in our 70s or older, these changes will have little relevance or impact. But for those now 50 years of age or less the cumulative effect of these changes will have dramatic impacts on what they ride, how they ride, and to some extent, where they ride.
Ciao…
Leave a Reply