This morning I was reading an article by Revzilla about the market for motorcycles in 2024. As interesting as it was, I’m sure that there will be a few surprises coming this year. I’ve compiled predictions from a variety of sources for this article. Some I can already see occurring, while for others, time will have to play out to see if the trends they predict come to fruition.
Kawasaki in 2024 has been incredibly active. This year they have introduced three new, either electric or hybrid motorcycles. The Ninja e-1, Z e-1, and the Ninja 7 Hybrid all have come to market this year. The entry by Kawasaki into the electric market is significant “because it is a huge indicator that one of the biggest motorcycling brands is investing heavily into the new space.”
https://www.revzilla.com/common-tread/2024-moto-predictions
Predictions about the demise of electric motorcycles seem to be dead wrong, as so far this year, sales have been stellar, outside North America and Europe. Sales in North America and Europe have tanked, global sales are ticking at a rate of 10% annually.
Seeing as the majority of motorcycles being sold are now in Asia, and the fact that most buyers are buying electric motorcycles in that region, it has seriously affected total sales volumes.
One of the worrisome trends, especially for Harley Davidson, is the sales of its motorcycles in general, and specifically about electric motorcycles. Hopefully, this will turn around, but the odds aren’t good. We’ll have a better view of what’s happening with Harley Davidson when they report 1st Quarter financial results.
But what we do know from Harley itself in 2024 is that (according to Reuters Feb 8th, 2024), “full-year revenue for its motorcycle segment to be flat to down another 9% from 2023, largely below analysts’ expectations, as a cutback in consumer spending pressured demand…the company’s global motorcycle shipments fell 13% in the fourth quarter, compared to a year earlier…while retail sales globally were also down 11%, led by a 9% fall in North America… the company’s sales from motorcycles and related products fell about 14% to $792 million in the (4th) quarter, missing analysts’ expectations of $880.2 million.”
There are a couple of notable bright spots in motorcycle sales in 2024, one being CFMoto, which saw 2023’s production of the 450SS become a favorite motorcycle for the year. The brand is poised to see a dramatic increase in its sales in North America as it increases its dealerships by more than 33% this year. As a reference to that number, Moto Guzzi has less than 100 dealerships in the U.S., and Harley Davidson, has less than 700.
As Ari Henning of Revzilla points out, “local multi-line dealers…new franchises and the salespeople are pumped to have affordable, fun, full-featured bikes on offer, even if most of them aren’t as refined or functional as more expensive Japanese or European models. With bike rolling in and the salesforce in place, I’m already seeing CFMotos on the road here in Los Angeles, and I fully expect that trend to accelerate.”
Much of what is to come in 2024 will not be a surprise as sales appear to be flat across most segments, with the possible exception of adventure-styled motorcycles. It’s a bit early to say exactly how 2024 will play out, but there will be at least one more major player releasing an electric motorcycle, that is Honda.
Ciao…
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