ON MARCH 18, 2024 BY PHOTOMOTOMAN WAWAIN MOTORCYCLING
Kawasaki Won’t Be the Only Hybrid
While hybrid motorcycles may not seem like the motorcycles of the future, in many countries by either 2030 or 2035 you won’t be able to buy a normal ICE equipped motorcycle. So, what does this mean for those people who will need to consider a purchase post-2030?
In an earlier article I looked at the Kawasaki Ninja 7 hybrid. In 2024 there won’t be a contender for the hybrid market. A lot of North Americans response to that is, “So what?” Well, for those starting their journey in motorcycles, this will be a serious question come anther 5 years.
While those of us riding ICE motorcycles that have already been purchased it might not mean much. But the question becomes, what if your bike can’t be transferred to a new owner and then registered? Personally, I wonder what restrictions will be put in place in relation to the purchase of a used motorcycle with an internal combustion engine.
As of yet, there hasn’t been any clarification to this particular question. What If I buy a $30- or 40-thousand-dollar motorcycle, but can’t sell it because no one can register it post 2035? The question isn’t a moot point if one isn’t planning on riding past a certain age. Now, don’t get me wrong, I don’t think the government would do that, for obvious reasons, but personally, I would like clarification before I bought another expensive motorcycle.
Ramifications of New ICE Ban on Sales
Undoubtedly, car, truck and motorcycle new vehicle sales will tank in 2035. People who don’t want to buy an electric or zero energy emission vehicle (ZEE) will buy used, with many buying used ICE vehicles for years to come. This will result in two problems. One will be that emissions won’t drop appreciably, and the second is that new vehicle sales will tank. A third unintended consequence will be that used car prices will begin to escalate. A fourth issue may well be that people will hoard used ICE vehicles. Many will wait until the last ICE vehicles are to be produced and buy then, ensuring they will have at least another ten years without having to converted to a zero or low emission vehicle.
https://driving.ca/auto-news/news/the-unintended-consequences-of-banning-gas-powered-cars-by-2035
Another unintended consequence may well be that hybrid vehicles will not be included in the ban, as Japan and China have not banned hybrid vehicles. Since Canadians have to travel long distances to get from city to city, allowing hybrids may actually see their numbers dramatically increase, which would make a ban pretty much meaningless.
Like confirmed alcoholics promising to quit drinking, Canadians are hooked on gasoline. However, with nine years to go, and new battery technologies showing signs of massive energy density increases (5 times the existing battery storage load), like Norway, Canada may then actually be ahead of intended targets.
Canada will spend Billions towards electrical grid improvements and in new fast charging facilities (50,000 Level 3 EV Chargers in Canada’s charging network) according to electrec.co.
New Impacts
In Politico’s article of November 22, 2021 entitled, “Uneasy rider: How Brussels could kill off the mortorbike”, Merlin Sugue states, “So far, the policy only covers cars and vans, but riders are worried that the Commission will eventually come for them—despite motorcycles being absent from the Commission’s massive Fit for 55 climate package released in 2021…the bloc’s 2050 target of cutting emissions from transport by 90 percent includes every part of the sector.”
And in the UK, it was announced that decarbonizing transport includes L-Class vehicles, a category that covers motorcycles, in mandating they have to be “fully zero emissions at the tailpipe” by 2035.
https://www.politico.eu/article/motorcycles-european-comission-eu-germany-uk-zero-emission-engine/
Restrictions are already starting in some European cities, with Paris, London and Barcelona introducing access restrictions for certain types of motorcycles.
According to Michael Lenson of the German Motorcycle Association, “Motorcyclists have a certain love of combustion engines, which is certainly more pronounced than with car drivers.”
Which brings us full circle to an article that was written in Topspeed.com entitled, “Honda Readying a Hybrid Motorcycle to Take on Kawasaki.” Since that article was written, Kawasaki has brought the Ninja 7 Hybrid to market. While not imported to North America, at least as yet, the impact of terminating ICE engines that burn gasoline and instituting only zero emission replacements, may mean that Hybrids, which may well end up being allowed after 2035, will see increases in production and sales in North America.
However, it’s really difficult to predict how new battery technologies and synthetic fuel manufacturing may impact the market over the next nine years. The only thing one can do, if you’re young and want to continue riding into older age, is to stay apprised of the changes and make decisions that suit your needs.
Time will tell the tale of ICE survival or its disappearance. All I know, is that at the age of 71, I won’t be changing my riding habits or my ride. Be well, stay safe and enjoy this coming summer.
Ciao…
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