Canada is at a crossroads. Closely aligned with the United States, it finds itself in a position that would have been unthinkable a scant ten years ago. Should Canada acquiesce to American populism, or should Canada chart a new path that would see it redefine its interests?
The United States, under trump, will withdraw from NATO, the one organization that has the power and ability to withstand autocracy and the interests of dictators. Canada, left outside the American protection umbrella will require a massive infusion of military expenditure and the realignment of its economic policies, over the longer term, in order to seek safety and stability, not to mention the retention of its sovereignty in the North.
America’s move towards populism is such that Canadian interests, which has always sought a balance with the United States, will be subject to America’s right-wing policies, which may include both political, economic and military pressure to ‘get in line’ with America’s domestic and foreign policy, irrespective of its rationality.
Canada will, if left to the Liberals, defer to America, regardless of the risk, as Liberal policy will not enable it to react appropriately. A new party or group of parties in Canada seems appropriate that takes a position of non-alignment with the United States. America under trump will resort to isolationism and an America First foreign policy, which leaves Canada at the crossroads we may well face this November.
Canadian interests, investment and policy should require Canadian companies and American companies invested in Canada to have a Canada First policy if they wish to continue benefiting from Canadian resources and specifically strategic resources. Canada, through its exports should assist in guaranteeing EU access to oil and gas and in turn require a much enhanced free-trade policy with both the EU and Asian interests, exporting resources to Japan and South Korea, as well as Australia and New Zealand.
Within domestic policy, Canada should require conscription, as many European countries have done, in order to provide a well-trained and equipped military. Instituting a 2.5% requirement for Canada’s defence budget would enable Canada to provide all the necessary armaments and technology to ensure its protection and sovereignty within a ten year framework. In terms of resources, this would provide almost $54 billion Canadian, a fund sufficient to support a state-of-the-art defensive posture, necessary for what may well be a very unstable and fractious future.
The Canadian Armed Forces, left solely to protect Canadian sovereignty will require nuclear weapons, and a greater dependence on trusted allies, such as Britain, Australia, Germany and France if America retreats its commitment to ensuring a Western Alliance. A return to a nuclear policy that includes the commitment to acquiring nuclear weapons, like that in the late 1950’s and 60’s may well prove necessary and prudent. Canada has both the means and ability to create a nuclear deterrent force and should begin to seek such a transition immediately, if trump wins election.
If the NAFTA agreements are abrogated by the United States, Canada should focus its trade relationships with Mexico, Europe and Asia, which will take time, but become increasingly necessary with a Kleptocracy in existence, right next door. None of this is wanted by Canadians, but may become increasingly necessary. During WWII and the Korean War, Canadian expenditures on defence were in the 8% of GDP region. It would appear that 2.5% is both palatable and rational when one considers the alternative. This level of expenditure would put Canada in the top ten of countries military spending, right behind France and ahead of Japan, currently.
For Canadians, much more than the existence of a new President in the United States, is at stake.
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