I cannot help being disillusioned, but more-so worried for Ukraine in its war with Russia. The war has now become a major international conflict that has implications for the future of Europe in its entirety. North Korea is more than willing to send 100,000 soldiers to Russia, in an effort by Kim Jong Un to cement a relationship with Russia. And Iran is providing drones and drone technology to Russia.

While Russia’s army has been bleeding personnel at an enormous rate, (by Ukraine’s estimate, almost 700,000 Russian personnel have been either killed or injured,) Putin has been able to now gain commitments from North Korea for up to 100,00 soldiers, not to mention that with Russia’s disproportionate manpower and military size the likelihood of a ‘peace deal’ ceding Russia all the land it has stolen to date, for peace, is probable. Not that Ukraine could take any armistice or agreement with Russia as truthful. Putin lies as easily as Donald J. Trump.

Ukraine, with a population of less than 38 million people has suffered significant losses, some say amounting to nearly 400,000, but with North Korea now providing additional troops, and with Russia having a population of 144 million, the attrition of troops in combat, favours Russia by a huge number. Kyiv, without a committed United States in support of Ukraine, is likely to lose.

At the present time the Russians are building a concentration of troops along the eastern front, bolstered by 10,000 North Korean soldiers. While the quality and capabilities of the North Koreans may well be suspect, rapid increases in manpower for the Russians in Donetsk and Luhansk, at a time when Ukraine’s manpower is, though stable, completely committed, does not bode well for this winter.

And then there’s Donald Trump, and his Art of the Steal. Yes, the steal. He intends to force Ukraine to admit defeat and sign an agreement in favour of his good friend, Vladimir Putin, unless NATO and the European Union do what’s essential and support Ukraine now, entirely. As France’s foreign minister, Jean Noel Barron stated, just two days ago Jeff Overs of the BBC in the following statements:

The wild card in this equation is Donald Trump. If Trump fails to support Ukraine by discontinuing the supply of weapons and ammunition, then it will fall solely on Europe and its NATO allies. And if the United States pulls out of NATO, then it will be incumbent on the remainder of NATO to stand up to Putin, by drawing a red line in the Ukrainian soil, and mobilizing a major defensive operation in support of Ukraine.

If Europeans make a decision to fight with and for Ukraine before Trump plays his, excuse the pun, trump card with Putin, then the United States will have lost all leverage with Europe and its former NATO allies. In fact, by no longer acting as an ally. Canada, New Zealand and Australia should remain committed to assisting Europe and Ukraine in order to ensure it stays free and democratic. Canada, in particular, should immediately commit to increasing its military expenditure as part of NATO to 2% and commit to developing its own military force sufficiently to where it is completely independent militarily from the United States.

This would likely require something Canada has not done since 1945, conscripting Canadian men into the armed forces. Each year, roughly 400,000 men turn 18 in Canada. If Canada found it necessary to double the size of the Canadian Armed Forces to 140,000 personnel, Canada would only have to conscript one in six 18 year olds men each year in the form of a lottery. If in so doing they decided to cover admission to University or any post-secondary institution of their choosing for any man who served their full year commitment, I doubt that most Canadians would find that problematic. Citizenship has a price, but so does national sovereignty and its protection.

NATO, without the United States, should unilaterally admit Ukraine to NATO immediately, placing a NATO army in the defence of Ukraine’s sovereign territory with Ukraine’s Forces.

Two days ago, Valerii Zaluzhnyi, Ukraine’s former Commander-in-Chief of all military forces made the following statement in the Kyiv Independent,

“World War III is underway. Speaking at the Ukrainska Pravda-100 award ceremonyon Nov. 20, Zaluzhnyi pointed to the direct involvement of Russia’s allies in the war against Ukraine as evidence of a global conflict.

“I believe that in 2024, we can absolutely assume that World War III has begun,” Zaluzhnyi said. He emphasized that Ukraine is no longer fighting Russia alone. “Ukraine is facing soldiers from North Korea. Let’s be honest. Iranian-made Shaheds [loitering munitions] are killing civilians in Ukraine quite openly. It’s missiles made in North Korea that are being launched onto Ukraine, and they are openly declaring this. Chinese-made shells are exploding in Ukraine, and Chinese parts are used in Russian missiles.”

It’s time to call Putin’s bluff, or be prepared for Ukraine to fall.

Ukraine cannot trust the United States under Trump. He has shown his willingness to ‘deal away’ Ukraine’s sovereignty and sovereign territory. Trump sees himself as a ‘deal maker’, at a time when Ukraine cannot afford his deals. Trump is very willing to prove he is a master of the deal, when he’s playing with other people’s lives, instead of his own. He was too cowardly to even serve in the military of his country.

It would seem, however, that the majority of the European Union’s democracies are resolved to prevent Putin from conquering Ukraine. Almost all nations have signalled their intent to go it alone, if the United States abandons Europe. And Poland’s Prime minister has vowed that Poland ‘will not let Ukraine fall to Russia.”

Europe has the industrial capacity to provide the EU’s NATO forces with sufficient weapons and ammunition to defeat Russia in a conventional war. However, the EU and Canada have wasted the time necessary to effectively strengthen their military forces and logistics capabilities necessary in an outright war with Russia.

Time has run out, and the EU and Canada need to commit to strengthening their military forces, now. The commitments made to date are but a starting point. As Poland has suggested, reorganizing the EU’s capacity to create both weapons and ammunition within Europe must take effect now.

Putin may agree to sign a cease fire, but in six months or a year, it’s just as likely that he will set his sights on Moldova, or attack Ukraine again.

What should be made clear to Trump, is that walking away from the defence of Ukraine, will have long term implications for the relationship between the United States and its former allies.

Norbert Rottgen stated in “Foreign Affairs” November 2024,

“Europe now has no choice but to manage its own security. There is no doubt that it has the economic potential to do so; the combined GDP of the European Union is roughly ten times that of Russia. What holds Europe back is a lack of political will.”

But political will, will be found when an existential threat like Russian invasion is the option.

Coercion used by the United States against liberal democracies, within the EU’s membership, may work in the short term, and it may well be fact that the EU and it’s NATO members, including Canada should have strengthened and expanded their military forces, but removing support for a democracy in the middle of its fight for survival is seen by most to be unconscionable, even cowardly. Leaders and nations that feel extorted have long memories, and those memories may well impact future policies, like trade and the supply chain that impacts the pocket books of Americans and the power and interests of the United States in the future.

Moreover, what does Trump’s willingness to abandon a friend signal to all other member states of the European Union?

Let me suggest how Europeans will react to abandonment — you cannot trust your sovereignty or survival to the United States, and specifically not to Donald J. Trump.