America’s Trade War with the World

How Canada Should and May Well Respond in Time

First, let’s be clear. Know that the fentanyl crisis and immigration issue in the United States has virtually nothing to do with Canada. Less than 1% of the immigration problem resides with Canada, and less than 1% of the fentanyl flowing into the U.S. comes from Canada.

Trumps’ claims are baseless lies designed to extort Canada and Canadians.

Know also that Canadians will neither forget the willful damage that America will inflict on Canada or forgive.

This will change Canada’s relationship in every way with the U.S. for the foreseeable future.

When America goes to war with China, Canada, Mexico, the EU, etc. etc., the end result will be added costs, inflation and a tremendous amount of animosity towards the U.S.. Trump has decided to attempt to extort ‘onshoring’ from Canada and Mexico. Trump seems to have no understanding as to the impacts of disruption and how they will occur within the United States, not to mention the capital costs to American industry and business should he do so. Were he even successful in reshoring industry and manufacturing to the U.S., due to the differential in labour and manufacturing costs, Americans would still pay substantively more for the same products.

The long term damage to the Canadian, Mexican and U.S. economies will be substantive. That’s for certain. However, rather than result in reshoring, it is more likely to lead to a radical and permanent change in trade at all levels. Whether it is oil, steel, strategic metals, automobiles, etc., the end result will be for Canada to seek new customers for its products. Seventeen American states do more trade with Canada than they do internally within America. Electrical power is provided to seven American states. Without it, brownouts and energy insecurity will last for years. Even if the tariffs are dropped, Canada won’t forget the damage done. It would, and should, seek a permanent change for its resources and products, creating trade agreements with trustworthy and honourable partners in Europe and Asia.

It will be exceptionally costly for Canada, but it will expedite a change that many Canadians have been suggesting was essential in any event. Canadians can no longer trust America. We can’t afford to, — that’s obvious. The U.S. is only interested in extorting Canada in order to meet Trump’s political ambitions. What will result? Here are a few possible outcomes.

• Canada can shut off exports of oil and gas to the U.S. leaving America with a long-term fossil fuel shortfall of approximately twenty percent. Gas at the pumps will rise by about .70 cents American per gallon.

• Canada has an almost 200 year supply of oil and gas. It should be kept for Canadians, refined in Canada (by building new super refineries in Canada) for export to the EU, Korea, Japan, and China.

• Canada can stop the exports of strategic materials, minerals and products to the U.S., especially those used in ‘chips’ technology and battery creation destined for American technology products.

• Canada can, and should change its strategic defence agreements, joining a new European defence organization, particularly so if the U.S. leaves NATO.

• This should include buying all military hardware, munitions and weapons systems from European, Japanese or Korean companies. In-kind production, in Canada would bolster Canada’s Military Industrial complex, which should seek, like Sweden, independence from America.

• Canada should cancel all agreements with American arms manufacturers and align itself with the EU’s military systems.

• Canada should leave NORAD and seek to develop two large blue-water bases on the Arctic Ocean and NorthWest passage, including airstrips for Canadian Armed Forces to operate from.

• Canada should proclaim a 200 mile limit on the ocean floor, surrounding Canada.

• Canada can turn off electrical exports to seven U.S. states, causing blackouts on the eastern U.S. seaboard, if tariffs are not rescinded.

• Canada can place countervailing tariffs on all American goods, including Cheese, milk, orange juice, Harley Davidson and Indian motorcycles, Apple Computers and Phones and all American Vehicles.

• Canada should ban X, Instagram, Facebook and Threads from Canada.

• Canada should place a 100% tariff on Teslas and American made electric vehicles.

• Canada can also nationalize all oil, gas and petroleum producing companies in Canada.

And while the costs to Canadians will be appreciable, particularly within those provinces producing or manufacturing finished products for the American market, it will also increase inflation, fuels and essential components for some American products.

Canada should also provide economic tax-free incentives to companies that want to develop manufacturing or resource extraction in Canada, again for exports to Europe and the orient.

Once done, there will likely be no return to normalcy on behalf of Canada. Many of the products, minerals and commodities needed in America will either increase in cost appreciably, or become unavailable from Canada completely.

Canada’s resource base is huge, and the world will require what Canadians have to offer. By providing incentives to buy Canadian products and commodities, Canada will find new markets, that once created, won’t likely return to supply for America.

In the future, water itself will become invaluable, particularly in relation to how climate change is affecting the United States west, southwest and Midwest. Canada should not be willing to share its water resources with America. America’s Ogallala aquifer is shrinking and under increased demand pressure. Once gone, it will not refill for a thousand years. Agriculture in the U.S. will suffer appreciably. So too is salt-water intrusion and infiltration occurring in California, which will significantly affect the production of fruits and vegetable in the U.S. While these impacts will not be near or short term, in the long term, America will undoubtedly suffer severe water shortages.

Canadian agricultural exports should be sold to Europe and the far east, not to America.

These are but a few of the possibilities. The more tariffs imposed, the greater the Canadian countervailing tariffs should become.

These bottom line could be that Canada and the United States would no longer be strategic partners, which would have immense impacts for both countries going forward.

Canadians will do what is necessary, irrespective of America’s extortion.