“We Must Hang Together or We Will All Hang Separately” Benjamin Franklin
Foreign Affairs magazine, https://www.foreignaffairs.com/china/underestimating-china?s=ESPAZ005A2&utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=fa_edit&utm_campaign=pre_release_understanding-china_prospects_b&utm_content=20250410&utm_term=ESPAZ005A2
Today ran an article that should resonate like a bell in Washington, DC.
But it won’t.
America has become both near-sighted and overconfident, some could say deaf as well.
“On critical merits, China has already outmatched the United States. Economically, it boasts twice the manufacturing capacity. Technologically, it dominates everything from electric vehicles to fourth generation nuclear reactors and now produces more active patents and top-cited scientific publications annually. Militarily, it features the world’s largest navy, bolstered by shipbuilding capacity 200 times as large as that of the United States; vastly greater missile stocks, and the world’s most advanced hypersonic capabilities — all results of the fastest military modernization in history. Even if China’s growth slows and its system falters, it will remain formidable strategically.”
Simply put, China has a far greater size and productive capacity.
China, possesses scale, America does not.
So it is that at a crucial juncture in time when China is on the ascendency and America past its apogee, that along comes an egoist and narcissist, without the skill, acumen or intelligence to understand that he no longer is playing a winning hand.
While China grows its influence, through programs like the ‘Belt and Road’ initiative, the U.S., threatens its partners and attempts to coerce or extort their acquiescence.
America should be working to hold on to its allies, instead it seeks to use and abuse them, which in turn is pushing the western democracies away in every important facet of international relations.
Whether in trade, military alliances, or geopolitical support, America is progressively and at pace, destroying its relationships with former friends and allies.
America seeks control, without the ability or willingness to do so. This model is obsolete, as America will find out rapidly in the coming months and years.
To achieve scale, America should have transformed its alliance architecture from one of managed relationships to an integrated and pooled capacity built across the military, economic and technological domains of its once allies.
Instead of pulling allies to its side, it has threatened, ostracized and alienated them.
There is no willingness by America to ‘share’ capacity or control. Instead, it demands command and control.
And where it now needs collaboration and partnerships of pooled capability and capacity, — instead it has pushed away its allies, who now, no longer trust America.
America’s Fall Has Already Begun – Trump is Simply Hastening It.
As Foreign Affairs suggests, “predicting the rise and fall of great powers is always fraught with inadequate information, the risks of bias, the long shadow of current events, and the challenge of sorting out which metrics matter most and in what time frame.”
While China has formidable problems, so does America, and more-so, American democracy.
Trump is without equivocation, destroying social democracy and its institutions in the United States.
A tyrant in all but name, President Trump, is disenfranchising Americans and seeking a retributive assault on any and all who have been perceived as simply unsupportive, never mind anti-trump.
America is in self-destruct mode.
Meanwhile, “accounting for purchasing power and local prices using the World Bank’s methodology, although imperfect, reveals instead that China’s economy surpassed the U.S. economy about a decade ago and is 25% larger today: roughly $30 trillion to the United States’ $24 trillion. This purchasing power adjustment captures the real cost of the determinants of national power, including infrastructure investment, weapons systems, manufactured goods, and government personnel — key factors in sustaining long-term strategic advantage.
“Using this approach, if one looks narrowly at goods rather than services, China’s productive capacity is three times as large as that of the United States–a decisive advantage in military and technological competition–and exceeds that of the next nine countries combined. In the two decades after China joined the World Trade Organization, its share of global manufacturing quintupled to 30 percent while the U.S. share halved to roughly 15 percent; the United Nations has estimated that, by 2030, the imbalance will grow to 45 percent and 11 percent. China leads in many traditional industries—producing 20 times as much cement, 13 times as much steel, three times as many cars, and twice as much power as the United States–and increasingly in advanced sectors as well.”
One fact is obvious. America’s decline is ongoing and steepening. Meanwhile Trump is alienating and turning allies into foes. His actions will result in the withdrawal of others from organizations that were long-standing alliances, like NATO itself.
America’s capacity isn’t what it used to be. Manufacturing and America’s capacity to sustain a conflict with China that is prolonged, is no longer a given. In order to meet the demands of a conflict with China, America would require assistance in the development of weapons platforms, weapons and munitions, yet America is hell-bent on destroying those alliances.
What was formerly known as the Arsenal of Democracies, is disintegrating expeditiously all due to Donald J. Trump, the master of the steal.
His legacy will be the destruction of American Democracy.
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