I’ve been contemplating what would happen if the rest of the world decided, unilaterally, to stop trading with the United States?
America’s focus on extorting other nations, and Trump’s idea of forcing agreements that favour the United States, irrespective of the long-term damage to global supply chains, and what has been essentially a wholly integrated world trade economy, not to mention the damage to foreign economies, could soon result in the ultimate backlash against the United States.
The world’s approximately 7.8 billion people would survive not dealing with the U.S., economically, culturally and militarily, if as a block they chose to drop all tariffs between them and use a new balance of multi-currencies, rather than the U.S. dollar.
American hubris under Trump has reached heights previously thought near impossible for almost any nation state that wants to actually have friends, partners and allies.
And the implications for the long term are that America, whatever its plans, will likely need to go it alone.
No one trusts America. No one.
It isn’t just BRIC’s and the 71 countries already trading in their own currencies that intend to devalue, and if possible, completely undermine the U.S. dollar.
It’s becoming a silent mission for those nations who feel they have been stabbed in the back by the United States.
Essentially, Trump will have accomplished what BRIC is attempting to do. Destroying American financial hegemony. And it won’t be slow incrementalism that allows American companies, particularly service companies that make up 80% of U.S. GDP to respond in a way that empowers them.
Let that sink in. Services account for 80% of the U.S. economy, not manufacturing, or the sale of raw materials, — services.
To survive, it will require those same companies to ‘offshore’ in order to simply retain customers.
Would such a situation hurt foreign nations as well?
Of course.
But if Trump continues his kleptocratic thievery, pretending to Americans that such action is justified, while the world acts to curtail all trade with the U.S. in response? What then?
In just a matter of months, Canada has reduced its dependency on U.S. trade by almost 10%. The aim is for Canada to move from 76% of its exports to, literally, as little as possible, within the next three years.
It is indeed damaging Canada, and affecting Canadian companies and their families while requiring the restructuring of their exports, supply chains, transportation and manufacturing. However, it has provided the impetus and the deep-seated resolve of Canadians to commit to ending the relationship with the U.S., permanently.
New trade arrangements will by 2029 see more than 50%, and hopefully 60% of Canadian exports go offshore.
Many of those essential to the U.S., in spite of the lies and disinformation coming from the People’s House of Great White Lies.
Canada will end sending 4.2 million barrels of oil to the U.S. daily. It will incrementally reduce its exports of aluminum, fertilizers, lumber, rare earth minerals, minerals of all kinds, — in fact all commodities, to the United States, as it continuously makes inroads into new markets and emerging markets.
North/South has now become East/West, and that is unlikely to change.
You don’t get to stab your neighbour in the back, then come over to borrow a cup of sugar.
Your neighbour, once healed, arms himself to the teeth and places monitoring devices along the property, while actively joining the neighbourhood watch while committing to join protection.
The changes won’t stop with just the aforementioned commodities and products either. It will include exports of all kinds of energy, including hydro power.
But in the future,the greatest risk to the United States will be desertification and climate change with the United States, and the loss of land capable of sustaining crops, cattle, vegetable production and fruits production.
American exports, will increasingly become subject to pressure, with the southwest and Midwest suffering drought conditions worse than those in the 1930’s.
And while Canada was a faithful ally, friend and partner, as was Mexico.
That’s over, for Canada, and as for Mexico, threatening invasion of Mexican sovereignty by the U.S. has likely poisoned the well of cooperation there as well.
Canada will now simply be a transactional nation. One that trades if it works for Canada.
That includes its military alliances, which will see Canada increase its bond with Europe and NATO, realigning its strategic priorities based on mutual interest and mutual assurances of collaboration and protection.
How AI Views What’s Coming If Trump Continues His Assault on the World
Today I asked a dominant AI platform what it thought would happen in the United States if Trump continues his attack on the economies of the world, and subsequently what would be the probable outcomes if the world’s economies stopped trading with the United States.
Its suggestions were purely analytical, based on what has occurred to date and its prognostications provided without equivocation, emotion or bias, for obvious reasons.
A reality that all of us will leave to adjust to and worry about if AI actually ever becomes sentient.
It stated the following:
- Such action would create a significant economic crisis. The U.S. would experience shortages of crucial goods, leading to price increases and potential social unrest.
- Supply chains would be completely disrupted, reducing manufacturing and exports.
- There would be shortages and price hikes for items from electronics, machinery, but especially raw materials.
- A complete halt in exports would create immense shortages and drive up prices, impacting consumers and businesses.
- There would be an immediate economic downturn and recession, including job losses and a massive loss in consumer confidence.
- Social instability would lead to social unrest.
AI’s Summary:
“In essence, a coordinated export stoppage by these major global players would be a catastrophic event for the U.S. and would have consequences for the governance of the nation.”
If America under this administration continues to attack its former partners and allies, I have no doubt that rather than succumb to a tyrant, Europe, Canada, Japan, Korea, the U.K., Australia and New Zealand along with many emerging economies, some already active members of BRIC, will create new trade organizations that do not include and do not want U.S. involvement.
The United States will have succeeded in creating the conditions whereby the world’s economies coalesce around a new trade regime, with a new world reserve currency that may well be supported by China.
All of this will be the result of one man’s arrogance, ignorance, stupidity and hubris.
Donald J. Trump, a man devoid of any decency, honesty, trustworthiness or respect.
The pain the U.S. is intent on subjecting the world to, will come back to haunt America for years and years to come should this continue.
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