Now that the dullard in chief has decided that regime change is the express purpose of America’s actions in Iran, it would seem highly appropriate to turn the page in America, and do the same.Trump and his band of Neanderthals are sharing high-five’s over the fact that America is in the process of eliminating the leaders of Iran.
And while very few of us in the west will lose any sleep over a theological autocrat, mass murderer and his band of terrorists being eliminated, there is now the likelihood of a much wider war that will move from a conventional military conflict into widespread interstate and international terrorism, outside of Iran.
America has likely guaranteed that the future will be filled with instances of mass murder, not simply in the middle-east in the other Sunni neighbouring nations, but in the United States of America.
The regime’s tentacles have been well funded, and their is no way to know at this point, how many weapons and of what capability may be in existence within the United States or adjacent countries where American troops are stationed.
Politico, this morning stated the following;
“The Trump administration seems to be betting that the Iranian people will soon take over the regime change process, resume protesting and successfully remove a greatest weakened government.”
However, Daniel Block, the Editor of Foreign Affairs, states, after having talked to a range of political scientists and Iranian experts that; “they expressed deep skepticism that even a massive air campaign could produce a successful uprising. For starters, they told me, aerial bombing campaigns have a terrible record at fomenting regime change in any state. Second, Iran has powerful repressive organs with a lot of experience in putting down popular unrest. In addition, Iran’s bureaucracy has been expecting — and preparing for — American attacks for generations…as well, the country’s political opposition remains weak, and it is famously fragmented.”
As a backdrop to the possible horror that may well now be unleashed on the Iranian people, back in February of 1991 George Bush made a similar appeal, but in Iraqi “the regime slaughtered 50,000 Iraqis in less than five weeks. The uprising was put down, and Saddam held onto power for another 12 years.”
According to Robert Pape, a political scientists at the University of Chicago who studies regime change and air power, he replied the following when asked whether what Washington was doing had succeeded elsewhere;
“Never”, he stated. “Bombings have never led people to take to the streets and topple their leader,” and there are two main reasons:
- Bombings often prompt citizens to turn against the domestic opposition — no matter how much they hate the leader. “Even the hint that you are siding with the attacking state is used by rivals to stab you in the back.” He further stated, “Just because you don’t like your country’s leaders, it doesn’t mean that you want to side with an external enemy who deposes them.
- Bombings by themselves rarely fully decimate a government’s repressive capacity. “In order to save the pro-democracy protesters, you’ve got to be right there. You have to have troops on the ground.”
Obviously, Trump has no intention of having significant numbers of Americans killed in yet another foreign war, especially since he vowed to his MAGA minions that America was never going to become embroiled in any further foreign wars under his Presidency. The following quote was made by Trump prior to his election in 2024; “I’m not going to start wars, I’m going to stop wars.”
That was before four and half million pages of incriminating files showed up related to his dalliances with Jeffrey Epstein.
And while there is always the ‘potential’ for regime change, that doesn’t mean it will change for the better — or that ordinary Iranians will have a say in what follows.
As states “It is possible, perhaps even more likely, that America and Israel have identified or will identify a cooperative regime insider who will help take charge, as happened in Venezuela. Either way, Iranians will have to fight to have their voices heard. And in a moment of great chaos, facing great danger and disruption, protesting for democracy is unlikely to be their first concern.
I think people are just trying to digest and think about whaat’s coming next” Vakil said.
They are going to be focusing on their own survival.”
A War Without a Plan
What appears most obvious, is that fact that the Trump administration hasn’t got a clue as to what the next steps either should be, or what to expect. There is every probability that the regime, whose organs of control and weapons systems will be employed against any group that attempts to protest, just as happened last month.
The likelihood is that Trump has succeeded in creating a situation where Iran and its proxies will simply reinstitute the regime under another leader, less well known and less predictable. The regimes weapons that arm the Revolutionary Guard are likely still in existence, which means that repression may well reoccur, along with the deaths of any and all with the courage to act against the regime.
Trump’s irrational act may well have succeeded in destroying the weapons that threaten Israel, shipping in the Gulf and the Straight of Hormuz, however, for the Iranian people, the reality may simply be an even more brutal phase of rooting out the limited opposition that was already fractured within Iran.
Without any plan going forward, other than destroying the infrastructure that civil society needs to survive, America may have simply succeeded in creating the next generation of martyrs intent on taking their terrorist cause to the shores of the United States itself.
Chris Hughes, the Defence and Security Editor for the Mirror, today stated in relation to the U.S. attempt at regime change;
“But what comes afterwards will be crucial and it could mean years of terrorism exported far beyond the Middle East against the west as Iran’s fighters and proxies are unleashed. Iran’s shadowy Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corp leaders may defect to a new leadership or, as happened in Iraq, go to ground and launch an insurgency against a new Iran. If the regime fails, Hezbollah in Lebanon loses its support, perhaps a billion dollars a year, along with Iran’s other proxies.
Decapitating Iran, without boots on the ground, simply means that chaos will ensue. The old order will attempt to reconstitute itself, and will likely succeed as it still has control of almost of the weapons. Should civilians once again attempt to rise up and replace the regime, all that may occur is the annihilation of the opposition and any citizens who take part, resulting in the extermination of tens of thousands.
For Iran, this may well be just another horrific period of destruction and murder. Meanwhile America will likely be even more exposed to major acts of terror as sleeper cells who have long anticipated America’s actions, will strike across the unprotected belly of the United States.
Terrorism at Home
I am reminded of days twenty-five years ago, when invincibility was suggested and where the pounding of chests claimed that American was immune to acts of terrorism or their success.
Then came 911, and America learned the danger of hubris, arrogance and the limits of power, particularly air power.
There is nothing stopping organizations like Hezbollah or any of its derivatives creating immense damage to a country that has no idea where it may next be struck or when.
Terrorism, by its very nature is unpredictable. It simply waits for the right time and place to act, and for a committed terrorist, survival is neither necessary or anticipated.
Today, the Telegram in an editorial stated;
“There are many in Iran who will welcome the US strikes. Perhaps, this time they really will “take over their government”. But it must be said that when the president promised Iranian protesters that “help is on the way” six weeks ago, it did not materialize, and tens of thousands of them were murdered by the regime. Now that this ‘help’ has arrived, the emptiness of what he offered before will only be more evident. We can only hope that this time will be different.
In 2013 Barack Obama did not attack Iran, and, inconclusive as negotiations were, the Iranian regime never did acquire nuclear weapons. If only the US was still under such wise and reliable leadership.”
By comparison, Mr. Trump has bombed Venezuela, Nigeria, Somalia, Iran, Iraq, Syria and Yemen. He also threatened Colombia and Greenland, a territory of NATO ally, Denmark.
So much for “I’m not going to start wars…”
Sam Kiley in the Telegraph, wrote today;
“There is a forum to stop Iran. It is the United Nations, and through its offices, Barack Obama and Iran signed a nuclear deal that in part, put its programme back. Trump tore that up. Instead we now have a rogue order in which it would appear more irresponsible for a national leader not to start a nuclear weapons programme.
Today, Saudi Arabia is looking at whether it should, or could, become a nuclear power.
So, the Israeli-American attack on Iran risks local instability, a wider terrorism war and a clash of civilization of the kind that feeds the energies of Isis and al-Qaeda. I also tells the world that there is no such thing as international law and therefore, the only way to survive is to be able to threaten Armageddon.”
That is Trump’s creation. A world where terrorism will likely come to the shores of America, and where Americans, who had no say in this disastrous choice of options, could well be immolated by Trump’s actions.
Donald Macintyre of the Telegram, from a bunker in Jerusalem this morning wrote;
“Intelligence officials in the US and elsewhere have detected no sign that Iran has even restarted enriching uranium since last year’s strikes, let alone built a mechanism which could detonate a bomb, so the question remains, why now?”
Jim Hines the ranking Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said after meeting Secretary of State Rubio that “we have not heard articulated a single good reason for why now is the moment to launch yet another war in the Middle East.” Trump’s bellicose video message in the early hours of yesterday morning failed to provide such a reason, let alone reassure public opinion across the West by declaring a clear and attainable aim for what is now a real and incalculably perilous war.”
Whatever comes of Trump’s arrogance and ignorance, it will solely rest on his ‘orange mane’ for all to see.
Thousands died due to you needing a diversion for your guilt.
Congratulations Mr. Precedent.
That…you unfortunately are.
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