Trump is returning from Beijing with two things to show for it. A full diaper, and a warning from Xi Jinping that the U.S. has no business in relation to Taiwan, and that the U.S. should not make any changes in relation to Taiwan that furthers their defensive capabilities versus China‘s reunification plan.
It also almost guarantees that after Trump has achieved virtually nothing on his trip to China, that Iran will once again bear the brunt of his anger and insecurity.
No doubt an attack on Iran will be forthcoming as the news cycle is about to concentrate on another of Trump’s failures. By further illustrating U.S. lack of capability and this administration’s geopolitical diplomatic failure to achieve anything substantive in relation to America’s military posture vis-a-vis Iran, it will likely result in a renewal of bombing Iran by the United States.
In just over 15 months, Trump has destroyed the United States relationship with virtually every former ally, except for the one deemed to be a genocidal murderous nation, and its leader, a criminally convicted genocidal killer.
The EU, Canada, Japan, the ROK, the U.K., Brazil, Australia, NZ and all of the emerging economies have been badly damaged financially and abused by the United States economically.
To what end?
And all that Trump has to show for these actions is a loss of influence, and further alienation by all the nations of the world that Trump has denigrated, threatened, extorted or tariffed.
The Strait of Hormuz Remains Closed, Yet Trump Keeps Stating That America Won. Sure you did…
Thousands of tankers and other ships carrying chemicals, fertilizers, Oil, Gas and containers remain stuck in the Gulf or outside the Gulf awaiting permission by Iran to make their passage.
Iran imposes a two million dollar tariff on those ships that do transit the gulf, except for China, of course.
It looks like a resolution for the U.S. is about as likely as Trump successfully accomplishing anything of value vis-a-vis U.S. diplomacy or economic improvement, with anyone, anytime.
Well, at least Americans will be able to ‘dance with the stars’ under his big, beautiful ballroom, eh?
No?
Oh right…that’s not going anywhere either, is it.
And oh, that one’s only costing Americans a cool billion. A billion. That has to be the most irrational frigging thing America has ever done.
Have you seen the man dance?
He should be paying you.
Takeaways From Trump’s Visit to China
- America is not at war with China…yet.
- Trump’s ’team’s didn’t have to use a pen, ink or any energy signing anything.
- Trump had ‘very good talks’ with China…just like Iran.
- Trump selling more arms to Taiwan, will result in zero future agreements with China.
- Trump stated that if Iran does not capitulate there will be total annihilation. (No one is sure if that was in reference to American foreign policy objectives or China’s willingness for any future agreements with the U.S.)
Let’s face it. Trump’s visit was essentially a total failure. Of course he’ll talk about some form of future framework from which he can either walk-away, or deny he actually stated he ever said, but that’s for next week.
China holds almost all the cards, and unlike Trump vs Zelensky, XI did not tell Trump that to his face, while threatening him with support for Iran.
That he’s saving for the first time the U.S seizes a Chinese tanker entering or leaving Iran.
No matter how you view Trump’s visit to China, nothing substantive was accomplished. Iran will still hold the Straits of Hormuz. America will still not have achieved any form of breakthrough in relation to trade, agricultural sales, access to rare earth minerals or the creation of pressure on China to intercede in Iran.
Why would they?
Their oil is flowing. Their products are arriving, and the pain that’s weakening America’s resolve is only increasing.
It’s obvious that if Trump doesn’t cave to China’s wishes, the pain that it can exert on the United States is just beginning. Gas prices will continue to rise, all the oil that was in transit to the U.S. from the Gulf has finished arriving.
Gas prices at the pump will be well north of $5.00 a gallon within two weeks, and there is no end in sight for Trump.
Military action will only result in Iran punishing the Gulf states and likely sinking ships in the Strait, not to mention mining it shut for the duration.
As for China?
China, for the last ten years has worked diligently and logically on building self-reliance and capacity in an electrification system that can withstand oil shocks, with EV vehicles, wind, solar and soon thorium reactors coming on line to further ensure that any global disruption in fossil fuel deliveries will not only be weathered, but impact the U.S. disproportionately and adversely.
Trump Has Painted America Into A Corner Without Access to any Stairway Out
The most salient feature of China-U.S. discussion was a statement released by Beijing.
“The U.S. side must exercise extra caution in handling the Taiwan question.”
https://www.cbc.ca/radio/frontburner/iran-quagmire-why-cant-the-u-s-end-the-war-transcript-9.7201538
At the moment, America is foundering and flailing around in the Gulf and China can simply watch America continuously lose more power in relation to its relationships with the Gulf States.
Remember, the Strait was open prior to Trump’s irrational attack on Iran. Their facilities, oil and gas were not damaged or their future exports reduced. Now they have been and will be, worse off if this continues, likely for years.
Iran’s regime is even more entrenched and willing to prolong the fight with America. For Iran, the fight is existential. However, for the Trump administration, a major loss of face may also be an existential threat to the GOP’s power over its supporters.
Iran still has 900 kilograms of refined uranium oxide and a greater willingness than ever to build 6-7 nuclear weapons.
Iran’s ballistic missile and hypersonic missile program hasn’t been affected and remains a substantive threat to any American ships at sea.
And soon, very soon, the temporary respite in relation to the cost of gasoline, fertilizer, etc., etc., will come to an abrupt end as oil prices are expected to take a substantive price hike in the next few weeks, upwards of 140 dollars U.S. per barrel, meaning mid five dollar a barrel gas prices in the U.S.
And lastly, a return to war (being likely) will be highly detrimental to the U.S., as it is estimated that Iran still has 70% of its missiles and launchers, which if true and turned loose on the U.A.E., Oman, Kuwait and Qatar, could destroy their economies going forward, — not to mention America influence in the Gulf permanently, while permanently leaving Iran in control of 80% of the world’s shipments of oil from the Gulf.
Trump started this debacle with no plan, no intelligence and no allies. It will end with America leaving with no plan, no outcome and no allies, except the number aligned against America will now include the Arab nations of the gulf.
Hubris, stupidity and ignorance have all been illustrated clearly by America’s actions, and so it is that the United States once again, is being seen as diminished, incompetent and a major threat to world peace, further alienating any future assistance to America.
Yes Donald, “it’s going very well.”
I’m sure it is, as it can only get worse.
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