How the U.S. Auto Industry Will Die: Not With a Bang… But a Whimper
What is becoming increasingly obvious is that the Big Three, are going to become the Lesser Three by 2035.
The current U.S. administration is ceding the EV world to China, and it’s obvious that it has no intention of either competing or meeting any type of climate change goals through the current administration, — ever.
This week in the Guardian, Lisa O’Carroll wrote an article entitled,
“The Chinese will not pause: Volvo and Polestar bosses urge EU to stick to 2035 petrol car ban”. The article spoke to the challenge that EU auto manufacturers have in producing cars in Europe, that can compete with Chinese vehicles, and how the attempts at keeping Chinese manufacturers out of Europe is a futile exercise that will result in EU automotive manufacturers being incapable of competing in the world of EV technology by 2035.
The chief executive of Polestar, Europe’s only all-electric car manufacturer stated, “Pausing 2035 is just a bad, bad idea. I have no words for that,” said Michael Lohsheller. “If Europe doesn’t take the lead in this transformation, be rest assured, other countries will do it for us.”
Volkswagen CEO, Hakan Samuelsson states, “I don’t see the logic in slowing down. If seat belts were not mandatory, we would probably have 30% of our cars without seatbelts and if you consider the additional cost we probably wouldn’t have any cars with catalytic converters either unless they were mandatory.”
Lohscheller is equally direct. “The Chinese will not pause. They will take over. If Brussels pauses this target and says: ‘Stop, we will give you another five years’, they are putting hundreds and thousands of jobs at risk.
It is worth noting that Chinese automotive manufacturing have been making massive inroads in Europe already.
Volvo, still believed by most to be a Swedish company, is only operated as such. It is owned by Zeijiang Geely since 2010.
But Europe’s woes in relation to vehicle production and electrification of the EU, are nothing compared to the morass of problems facing the United States.
Make America Like the 1950’s Again
Donald J. Trump is setting America up to become completely uncompetitive by 2030. It will have lost the EV revolution to China, entirely, with Japan and Korea likely being the largest, if not their sole competitors.
First, the U.S. has reversed some electrification targets. Trump, ever the wizard of the deal, has revoked a previous Biden order that aimed for 50% new vehicle sales to be electric by 2030.
Just at a time where electrification looked like it was going to see adoption in the U.S., Trump intervened by doubling down on ICE engines and his interests in fossil fuels.
Trump has forced the EPA to lower its emissions rules as well. By allowing hybrids and gas-saving technologies to continue past 2030, it has resulted in some automakers scaling back their EV investments and production plans.
The Trump administration has now frozen all unspent federal funds for vehicle charging stations and is considering ending EV tax credits.
By prolonging the transition to EV’s, the U.S. will fall farther and farther behind the Chinese, Japanese and Koreans, ceding the future EV market to those interests.
American EV’s were already the least efficient, slowest to charge, with the shortest ranges and highest costs, — exactly the opposite of where Chinese manufacturers, and the buying public, worldwide are going.
And the news gets worse the more one delves into the issues facing American manufacturers. Trump’s tariffs mean that American products now face a 35% tariff to be imported into Canada. In addition, the heavily integrated parts industry and supply chains means that many American plants are either slowing their production or attempting to find American parts suppliers, who typically are 35% more expensive than those they are trying to replace from Canada.
This same situation exists in relation to Mexico where labour costs are even lower.

Trump is intent on bringing back ICE engines, which is destined to worsen America’s already significant lack of competitive ability against Chinese vehicles. If Chinese vehicles were allowed to enter the U.S., they would sell for less than half of the price of American made EV’s, which have longer charging times, shorter ranges and older technologies.
Canada is going to drop the 100% tariff it has on Chinese vehicles and provide incentives to Canadians (once again in 2026) to buy EV’s, which from China are expected to cost about half of the current EV vehicle prices in Canada.
What this signals is that for every Geely or BYD EV truck or car sold in Canada, that will be one less Ford, GM or Stellantis vehicle sold.
And competition with China is nye on impossible in America. Labour costs, steel costs, aluminum costs, electronic component costs, battery costs and electric motor costs are all significantly higher.
Just consider this one simple fact:
An American autoworker makes $28.02 an hour on average in Detroit or Kentucky or Texas or Alabama.

Meanwhile in China an automotive worker makes $2.18 U.S. per hour. And that’s before you add on pensions or benefits in the U.S.
So who in America will want to work in an automotive plant, that can compete?
No one.
And robotics won’t help America. Chinese automotive plants are highly technologically advanced and utilize robots to a greater degree than anywhere on earth currently.
Climate Change Will Result in America’s Car Manufacturers Seeing Less and Less Market Share
There is an analogy in the vehicle arena for what is now happening in the U.S. automotive sector. And it should act as a harbinger for what is probable if the Trump administration continues its illegal and self-defeating tariff agenda into the future.
Harley-Davidson motorcycle company.

HD has lost almost three quarters of its market share in a fourteen year period due to a myopic 1950’s attitude towards the manufacture of their motorcycles. By continuing to build motorcycles that the world’s youth doesn’t want, HD is slowly killing its own market.
If Ford, GM and Stellantis continue to double down on ICE vehicles and mild hybrids or hybrids, their market share will continue to decline, while costs escalate and the cost of fuel and maintenance continues to rise, unabated.
In reality, the battle is already over. Only Americans fail to recognize that their competitiveness is no longer valid. China’s EV growth around the world is increasing at an amazing rate.
China is the world’s largest EV market, and its manufacturers are rapidly expanding their export sales, which surged in 2025 to a record high. Factors driving their success include cost advantages from cheaper batteries and strong government support.
In 2025, two out of three EV’s sold on earth, are now Chinese.

And if the US opens its borders to Chinese vehicles, Ford, GM and Stellantis will become little more than a memory, like Studebaker, which ended production in Canada, in 1966.
The future is anything but bright for U.S. car and light truck manufacturers, but that’s what comes when the President of the United States cares more about his financial interests than the hundreds of thousands of Americans who depend on auto manufacturing.











